Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies were subdued on Monday as investors turned cautious amid renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, while the yen weakened amid political uncertainty in Japan. U.S. President Donald Trump reignited trade fears on Friday by threatening duties of up to 100% on U.S.-bound Chinese goods and fresh export controls on critical technology. However, Trump softened his tone over the weekend, saying markets should “not worry about China” and signalling that Washington did not intend to escalate hostilities imminently. The shift helped steady sentiment, though traders remained wary of unpredictable policy moves. "We are not convinced that this trade escalation between US and China is over from this morning’s social media tweet from Trump, given the huge gulf of expectations between both US and China," MUFG analysts said in a note. "As such, we think markets could remain volatile in the near-term, and in the broader context of assets priced quite closely for perfection, we think both realised and implied vol across assets could start to pickup somewhat from reasonably low levels currently," they added. In other news, data on Monday showed that China’s exports and imports beat forecasts despite headwinds from mounting global tensions and weakening domestic demand. Still, the Chinese yuan’s onshore USD/CNY pair was largely muted on Monday. The currency came under pressure after the junior Komeito party exited the governing coalition, casting doubt on whether ruling party candidate Sanae Takaichi can secure enough parliamentary support to become prime minister. The political shake-up has fuelled concerns about policy continuity and fiscal direction. Takaichi has advocated for aggressive fiscal stimulus, and investors see heightened uncertainty as a reason for the Bank of Japan to maintain its ultra-loose stance for longer.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$4022.78/oz and low of $3946.95/oz. God is up by 1.071% at US$4016.87/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3970-4110 keeping stop loss closing above 4110, targeting 3964-3950-3925 and 3915-3894-3885. Buy in between 3964-3900 with risk below 3900 targeting 3984-3995-4010 and 4040-4050-4064-4080.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday its intraday high of US$51.11/oz and low of US$48.87/oz settle up by 1.533% at US$49.98/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 51.00-40.00, targeting 51.60-52.00-52.50 and 52.90-53.50-54.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 40.00. Sell in between 51.70-54.10 with a stop loss above 54.50 targeting 51.00-50.10-49.80 and 49.30-48.75-48.15-47.60.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday high of US$61.25/bbl, an intraday low of US$57.83/bbl, and settled down by 5.16% to close at US$57.91/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 59.40-70.00 with stop loss at 70.00; targeting 58.70-58.00-57.40 and 56.90-56.00-55.10. Buy above 59.00-55.00 with risk daily closing below 55.00, targeting 59.40-60.60-60.05 and 61.50-62.05-62.70-63.50-64.10.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1545/EUR, a high of US$1.1630/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.486% to close at US$1.1619/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1690-1.1990, targeting 1.1640-1.1590 and 1.1545-1.1500-1.1470 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1600-1.1110 with risk below 1.1100 targeting 1.1790-1.1850-1.1890-1.1920 and 1.1950-1.1990-1.2040.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday low of US$1.3260/GBP, a high of US$1.3370/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.454% to close at US$1.3357/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3300-1.3040 with a target of 1.3410-1.3470-1.3550 and 1.3600-1.3625-1.3680-1.3720 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3370-1.3850 with targets at 1.3370-1.3310 and 1.3260-1.3200-1.3160 with a stop loss of 1.3850.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday an intra‐day low of JPY151.14/USD an intraday high of 153.26/USD, and settled the day down by % at JPY151.17/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 153.10-155.50 with risk above 155.00 targeting 152.65-152.00-151.60-151.20 and 150.50-149.90-149.00. Long positions above 152.60-148.00 with targets of 152.65-153.10-153.60 and 154.00-154.60-155.50with stops below 144.00.