Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies were little changed on Monday as the dollar extended gains from last week, while the Chinese yuan remained muted after the country’s central bank kept lending rates unchanged as expected. The dollar rebounded after the Federal Reserve reduced rates by 25 basis points last week, but Chairman Jerome Powell adopted a cautious tone regarding future rate reductions. Powell emphasized persistent inflationary risks and a cooling labor market, suggesting that the central bank would proceed with caution in its monetary policy adjustments. Traders are now focusing on a series of speeches from Federal Reserve officials scheduled for this week. Approximately 10 Fed officials, including Chair Powell, are expected to provide further insights into the central bank’s economic outlook and policy direction. Of particular interest is Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who recently advocated for a more aggressive rate cut and is anticipated to elaborate on his stance. Asian currencies remained rangebound, as traders sought a clearer direction on the Fed’s future path. The Australian dollar’s AUD/USD pair remained largely unchanged. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock noted that recent economic data have largely matched expectations, though the global outlook remains uncertain. Despite sluggish factory output and retail sales, the central bank opted to maintain its policy stance, possibly awaiting the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October for a reassessment.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$3685.15/oz and low of $3632.17/oz. Gold is up by 1.136% at US$3684.41/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3700-3772 keeping stop loss closing above 3772, targeting 3680-3662-3655 and 36453630-3619. Buy in between 3684-3534 with risk below 3534 targeting 3700-3720-3731 and 3750-3760-3771.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday its intraday high of US$43.07/oz and low of US$41.63/oz settle up by 3.616% at US$43.05/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 43.00-33.10, targeting 43.60-44.00-44.25 and 45.00-45.40-45.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 33.00. Sell in between 43.60-45.90 with a stop loss above 46.00 targeting 43.00-42.60-41.40 and 40.70-40.10-39.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Wednesday high of US$63.29/bbl, an intraday low of US$62.61/bbl, and settled down by 1.513% to close at US$62.28/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 63.50-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 62.70-62.00 and 61.50-60.60-60.05. Buy above 62.75-58.00 with risk daily closing below 58.00, targeting 63.00-63.60-64.10 and 64.70-65.40-66.20-67.10.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1728/EUR, a high of US$1.1791/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.322% to close at US$1.1747/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1755-1.1990, targeting 1.1640-1.1590-1.1545 and 1.1500-1.1470-1.1420 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1690-1.1110 with risk below 1.1100 targeting 1.1755-1.1790 and 1.1850-1.1890.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday low of US$1.3462/GBP, a high of US$1.3558/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.573% to close at US$1.3473/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3430-1.3040 with a target of 1.3470-1.3550 and 1.3600-1.3625-1.3680-1.3720 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.625-1.3850 with targets at 1.3479-1.3410-1.3370-1.3310 and 1.3260-1.3200-1.3160 with a stop loss of 1.3850.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday an intra‐day low of JPY145.19/USD an intraday high of 148.28/USD, and settled the day up by 0.313% at JPY147.95/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 148.50-154.00 with risk above 154.00 targeting 148.10-147.40 and 146.60-146.10-145.20-144.70. Long positions above 148.00-144.00 with targets of 148.70-149.35 and 149.90-150.50-151.20-151.60 with stops below 144.00.