Daily Markets

• Asian currencies broadly traded with caution on Monday, weighed down by reduced expectations for a significant Federal Reserve rate cut in September and simmering geopolitical risks ahead of key U.S.-Ukraine talks The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was largely steady in Asia hours after losses in the previous session. Last week’s hotter-than-expected U.S. producer price index (PPI) and robust retail sales figures have cooled speculation of a half-point Fed rate cut in September, lowering forecasts to a more modest 25-basis-point move. This trimmed expectations for rapid monetary easing, underpinning the U.S. dollar and putting pressure on Asia FX. The Japanese yen’s USD/JPY edged up 0.1% on Monday. Data on Friday showed that Japan’s economy expanded more than expected in the second quarter. In China, both the onshore USD/CNY and offshore USD/CNH yuan pairs traded largely unchanged on Monday. Last week’s data showed that Chinese industrial production in July fell short of expectations, while retail sales figures also missed forecasts, raising calls for additional government stimulus. At last week’s Anchorage summit, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin ended discussions without agreement on Ukraine. Trump, who previously insisted on a ceasefire as a precondition, shifted closer to Moscow’s position by backing a full peace deal first. Investors are now watching Trump’s meeting later on Monday with Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders in Washington. With no clear outcome, traders remained sidelined, keeping Asian forex trading subdued until there was more clarity from the Washington talks.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$3348.62/oz and low of $3332.12/oz. Gold is down by 0.0329% at US$3355.51/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3350-3500 keeping stop loss closing above 3500, targeting 3341-3330-3312 and 3300-3288-3278-3267. Buy in between 3354-3211 with risk below 3200 targeting 3354-3367-3380-3390 and 3400-3424-3437-3451.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday its intraday high of US$38.08/oz and low of US$37.66/oz settle up by down by 0.0473% at US$37.97/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 37.80-33.10, targeting 38.10-38.90-39.50 and 39.90-40.50-41.10 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 33.00. Sell in between 38.5-43.00 with a stop loss above 43.00 targeting 37.80-37.20-36.30 and 35.60-35.30-34.70-34.05.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday high of US$63.24/bbl, an intraday low of US$61.862/bbl, and settled down by 1.134% to close at US$62.24/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 62.70-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 62.00 and 61.50-60.60-60.05. Buy above 62.00-60.00 with risk daily closing below 60.00, targeting 64.10-65.40-66.20 and 67.10-67.90-68.70.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1645/EUR, a high of US$1.1714/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.0418% to close at US$1.1704/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1690-1.1990, targeting 1.1545-1.1500-1.1470 and 1.1420-1.1390-1.1320-1.1260 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1645-1.1110 with risk below 1.1100 targeting 1.1690-1.1755-1.1790 and 1.1850-1.1890.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday low of US$1.3519/GBP, a high of US$1.3574/GBP, and settled the day up 0.218/% to close at US$1.3555/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3530-1.3040 with a target of 1.3600-1.3625-1.3680 and 1.3720-1.3790-1.3850 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3600-1.3850 with targets at 1.3550-1.3510-1.3450 and 1.3400-1.3370-1.3310 with a stop loss of 1.3850.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday an intra‐day low of JPY146.73/USD an intraday high of 147.85/USD, and settled the day down by 0.384% at JPY147.18/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 147.40-154.00 with risk above 154.00 targeting 147.40-146.60-146.10 and 145.20-144.70-143.90. Long positions above 146.00-144.00 with targets of 147.40-148.10-148.90-149.35 and 149.90-149.00-148.10-147.40 with stops below 145.00.