Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies firmed on Monday, while the dollar extended losses after softer-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data sparked uncertainty over the U.S. economy and interest rates. But despite Monday’s gains, most regional currencies were nursing losses in recent sessions as concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs kept investors largely wary towards risk-driven markets. A mixed outlook for U.S. interest rates also weighed, especially after the Federal Reserve signaled last week that it has no immediate plans to cut rates. Among Asian currencies, the Japanese yen’s USDJPY pair rose 0.2%. The yen was an outlier among its peers last week, and saw a heavy dose of safe haven demand on Friday. The dollar index and dollar index futures both fell about 0.4% on Monday, extending steep losses from the prior session. The greenback tumbled from two-month highs after nonfarm payrolls data read substantially weaker than expected for July. Payrolls data for the past two months was also revised down sharply. The print pointed to a sharp cooldown in the U.S. labor market, and spurred fears that Trump’s tariffs were hurting the economy. Trump’s firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, after the payrolls data, also ramped up concerns over the credibility of U.S. economic data. Friday’s data sparked bets that the Fed will cut interest rates soon, especially amid growing pressure from Trump for lower rates. The early resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler also gives Trump the opportunity to name a new member to the Fed’s board. Despite Monday’s gains, most Asian currencies remained under pressure from uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs. Trade talks between New Delhi and Washington are still ongoing, although no deal is expected soon.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$3363.35/oz and low of $3281.53/oz. Gold is up by 2.217% at US$3363.05/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3364-3500 keeping stop loss closing above 3500, targeting 3354-3330-3312 and 3300-3288-3278-3267. Buy in between 3354-3211 with risk below 3200 targeting 3364-3372-3380 and 3390-3400-3424-3434

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday its intraday high of US$37.12/oz and low of US$36.34/oz settle up by down by 0.896% at US$37.02/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 36.10-33.10, targeting 37.20-37.80-38.90-39.50 and 39.90-40.50-41.10 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 33.00. Sell in between 37.50-43.00 with a stop loss above 43.00 targeting 36.10-35.60-35.30 and 34.70-34.05-33.60

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday high of US$68.95/bbl, an intraday low of US$66.44/bbl, and settled down by 3.12% to close at US$66.59/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 67.10-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 66.20-65.40-64.10 and 63.40-62.80-62.00. Buy above 66.20-62.00 with risk daily closing below 62.00, targeting 67.10-67.90-68.70 and 69.50-70.05-71.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1390/EUR, a high of US$1.1596/EUR, and settled the day up by 1.568% to close at US$1.1587/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1575-1.1990, targeting 1.1545-1.1500-1.1470 and 1.1420-1.1390-1.1320-1.1260 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1545-1.1110 with risk below 1.1100 targeting 1.1575-1.1600-1.1650-1.1690 and 1.1755-1.1790.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday low of US$1.3139/GBP, a high of US$1.3310/GBP, and settled the day up 0.608% to close at US$1.3279/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3260-1.3040 with a target of 1.3300-1.3370 and 1.3400-1.3470-1.3510-1.3600 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3300-1.3850 with targets at 1.3200-1.3139-1.3090 and 1.3050-1.3010 with a stop loss of 1.3850.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday an intra‐day low of JPY148.69/USD an intraday high of 150.90/USD, and settled the day down by 2.18% at JPY147.41/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 150.50-154.00 with risk above 154.00 targeting 146.60-146.10-145.20 and 144.70-143.90-143.00. Long positions above 150.00-145.00 with targets of 148.90-149.35-149.90-149.00 and 148.10-147.40-146.60 with stops below 140.00.