Daily Markets

• The dollar surged Monday after suffering a months-long pummeling at the hands of trade-war anxiety, but now even as Washington’s biggest tariff battles move into rear-view, relief for the battered currency isn’t likely as a potentially less hawkish Federal Reserve is now the main threat. The barrage of trade deal headlines—covering everything from the U.S.–EU and Japan frameworks to progress with emerging markets—has tamped down the market’s worst fears. That’s already left its mark on the dollar: “Last month’s USD weakness likely reflects market relief that the worst trade outcomes are unlikely,” the bank said. But with the edge of market nerves dulled and little left for trade peace to deliver, attention shifts squarely to the Federal Reserve. Markets aren’t braced for fireworks at the July FOMC meeting, with “nothing priced for the 30 July meeting and 16bps of cuts…for the 16 September meeting.” But Standard Chartered warns the surprise risk lies in Chair Powell’s tone. He could signal more openness to rate cuts if trade inflation proves transitory: “The case for not cutting is not nearly as obvious as 0bps pricing and Fed rhetoric would suggest… Powell indicated at his mid-year Congressional testimony and at the ECB Sintra conference that the Fed would be cutting were it not for tariff-related inflation uncertainty. The strategists highlight that the divide among FOMC members has narrowed to just a debate over tariffs: “It narrows the gap between Fed hawks and doves to differences on the expected impact of tariffs, which is very debatable.” Doves like Governor Waller want to look past one-off price jumps, while Powell’s base case is that, absent tariffs, the Fed could be easing. With most of the trade optimism baked in, economic data could take center stage—especially the next jobs report. Standard Chartered warns there is “far more downside risk than the consensus 109k would suggest.” A sharply weak payroll number, especially if it exposes public sector job loss or reflects the chilling effects of immigration policy on the labor force, could accelerate Fed cut expectations and deepen dollar losses. Despite the looming risks, the bank calls for only a “few months of modest softness.” There’s still fundamental resilience: “The USD may have another few months of modest softness, but we think the softness will be limited.” Any bigger slide likely hangs on a real Fed policy pivot, not further trade headlines.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$3345.30/oz and low of $3301.71/oz. Gold is down by 0.211% at US$3314.32/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3354-3500 keeping stop loss closing above 3500, targeting 3328-3312-3300 and 3288-3278-3267. Buy in between 3328-3220 with risk below 3200 targeting 3354-3372-3380 and 3390-3400-3424-3434

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday its intraday high of US$38.32/oz and low of US$37.88/oz settle down by up by 0.463% at US$38.14/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 38.10-33.10, targeting 38.90-39.50 and 39.90-40.50-41.10 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 33.00. Sell in between 40.50-43.00 with a stop loss above 42.00 targeting 38.55-38.25-37.80 and 37.20-36.10-35.60-35.30.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday high of US$66.40/bbl, an intraday low of US$64.78/bbl, and settled up by 2.87% to close at US$66.64 /bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 65.20-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 65.40-64.10 and 63.40-62.80-62.00. Buy above 65.40-62.00 with risk daily closing below 62.00, targeting 66.00-67.12 and 67.90-68.60-69.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1585/EUR, a high of US$1.1769/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.0961% to close at US$1.11585/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1745-1.1990, targeting 1.1600-1.1570 and 1.1545-1.1470-1.1450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1690-1.1410 with risk below 1.1400 targeting 1.1650-1.1690-1.1790 and 1.1835-1.1890-1.1950.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday low of US$1.3350/GBP, a high of US$1.3451/GBP, and settled the day down 0.440% to close at US$1.3350/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3350-1.3040 with a target of 1.3400-1.3470-1.3510 and 1.3600-1.3645-1.3710-1.3790 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3400-1.3850 with targets at 1.3330-1.3300-1.3245 and 1.3200-1.3160-1.3100 with a stop loss of 1.3850.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday an intra‐day low of JPY147.51/USD an intraday high of 14856/USD, and settled the day up by 0.467% at JPY148.39/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 148.50-149.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 146.60-146.10-145.20 and 144.70-143.90-143.00. Long positions above 147.90-140.00 with targets of 148.90-149.35-149.90 with stops below 140.00.