Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies traded flat on Monday as traders braced for an action-packed week featuring interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve, renewed U.S.–China trade talks, and an impending tariff deadline set by President Donald Trump. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, fell 0.1% in Asia hours. Dollar Index Futures were largely muted. President Trump announced a U.S.–EU framework deal on Sunday. The agreement includes a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S., down from the 30% originally proposed. Meanwhile, top U.S. and Chinese officials were scheduled to meet in Stockholm on Monday to resolve trade tensions and reportedly seek a three-month extension of their tariff truce. According to a South China Morning Post report, both sides are looking to extend the tariff truce before it expires on August 12, with no plans to impose new duties or escalate tensions. Despite easing global trade tensions, investors remained cautious ahead of the August 1 deadline, when countries would see higher tariff rates if a deal was not reached. Both Fed, BOJ expected to hold rates steady. The BOJ is expected to hold interest rates steady on Thursday amid global trade certainty and domestic political flux. Analysts believe that the U.S.-Japan trade deal signed last week would provide some room to policymakers to raise rates again later this year. Still, investor sentiment in Japan remained cautious amid ongoing political uncertainty, following the ruling coalition’s defeat in last week’s upper house elections and speculation over Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s potential resignation. The Japanese yen’s USD/JPY pair was little changed after sharp gains last week. Meanwhile, the U.S. Fed is also expected to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday this week, with markets awaiting comments from central bankers to gauge further policy outlook.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$3438.90/oz and low of $3381.47/oz. Gold is down by 1.303% at US$3386.81/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3354-3500 keeping stop loss closing above 3500, targeting 3328-3312-3300 and 3288-3278-3267. Buy in between 3328-3220 with risk below 3200 targeting 3354-3372-3380 and 3390-3400-3424-3434.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday its intraday high of US$39.17/oz and low of US$37.93/oz settle down by down by 2.32% at US$38.14/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 38.10-33.10, targeting 38.90-39.50 and 39.90-40.50-41.10 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 33.00. Sell in between 40.50-43.00 with a stop loss above 42.00 targeting 38.55-38.25-37.80 and 37.20-36.10-35.60-35.30.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday high of US$66.40/bbl, an intraday low of US$64.73/bbl, and settled down by 1.629% to close at US$64.77/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 65.20-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 65.40-64.10 and 63.40-62.80-62.00. Buy above 65.40-62.00 with risk daily closing below 62.00, targeting 66.00-67.12 and 67.90-68.60-69.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1702/EUR, a high of US$1.1774/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.0961% to close at US$1.1742/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1745-1.1990, targeting 1.1600-1.1570 and 1.1545-1.1470-1.1450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1690-1.1410 with risk below 1.1400 targeting 1.1650-1.1690-1.1790 and 1.1835-1.1890-1.1950.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday low of US$1.3514/GBP, a high of US$1.3527/GBP, and settled the day down % to close at US$1.3439/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3550-1.3040 with a target of 1.3600-1.3645-1.3710 and 1.3750-1.3790-1.3850 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3550-1.3850 with targets at 1.3360-1.3300-1.3245 and 1.3200-1.3160-1.3100 with a stop loss of 1.3850.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday an intra‐day low of JPY146.80/USD an intraday high of 147.93/USD, and settled the day down by 0.108% at JPY147.66/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 147.50-149.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 146.60-146.10-145.20 and 144.70-143.90-143.00. Long positions above 146.50-140.00 with targets of 148.90-149.35-149.90 with stops below 140.00.