Daily Markets

• The U.S. dollar slipped against the euro on Friday but held on to weekly gains, as investors weighed expected Federal Reserve policy amid signs that tariffs may be starting to increase some inflation pressures and as U.S. President Donald Trump continued to criticise Chair Jerome Powell. Data on Tuesday showed that consumer prices rose in June, though the increase was seen as moderate. Wednesday’s producer price inflation report showed that prices were steady last month. Powell has said he expects inflation to rise this summer as a result of Trump’s tariff policies. His comments have pushed out expectations of when the U.S. central bank is likely to cut interest rates. But the labor market is showing signs of weakness even as headline job gains and the unemployment rate remain relatively solid. Fed governor Chris Waller said on Friday that he favors a rate cut at the July meeting because he feels tariffs are likely to have a limited impact on inflation. Waller added that underlying data "are not indicating a super healthy private sector labor market," and the Fed should "get ahead" of a possible hiring slowdown. Powell is facing almost daily criticism from Trump over the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates. The dollar tumbled on Wednesday on reports that Trump was planning to fire the Fed Chair, but rebounded after Trump denied the reports. Powell’s term will end in May Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he is a "little wary" about signs in the June consumer price index that tariffs are pushing up goods inflation, but still believes the U.S. economy is in a good place and the Fed’s policy rate can come down a "fair bit" over the next 12 months. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 46 basis points of cuts by year-end, implying that two 25 basis point cuts are seen as most likely, with the first coming in September. The dollar index was roughly flat on the day at 98.49, and is on track for a 0.65% weekly gain. The euro pared gains after the Financial Times reported that Trump is pushing for a minimum tariff of 15% to 20% in any deal with the European Union. Sterling was flat at $1.3411 and is heading for a weekly decline of 0.64%. The Japanese yen was slightly lower against the greenback heading into Sunday’s upper house election, in which Japan’s ruling party looks vulnerable Polls suggest Japan’s ruling coalition is at risk of losing its majority, which would stir policy uncertainty at home and complicate tariff negotiations with the United States. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba that their countries can reach a "good agreement" on tariffs, Ishiba said on Friday after meeting Bessent in Tokyo. The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday passed a bill to create a regulatory framework for U.S.-dollar-pegged cryptocurrency tokens known as stablecoins, sending the bill to Trump, who is expected to sign it into law.

Gold – XAU

Gold on its Friday intraday high of US$3361.16/oz and low of $3331.77/oz. Gold is up by 0.249% at US$3349.61/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3364-3500 keeping stop loss closing above 3500, targeting 3354-3328-3310-3300 and 3287-3274-3244. Buy in between 3340-3220 with risk below 3200 targeting 3364-3372-3380 and 3386-3404-3420.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday its intraday high of US$38.42/oz and low of US$38.03/oz settle down by up by 0.068% at US$38.15/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 37.80-33.10, targeting 38.25-38.90-39.50 and 39.90-40.50-41.10 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 33.00. Sell in between 38.40-42.00 with a stop loss above 42.00 targeting 37.80 and 37.20-36.10-35.60-35.30.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday high of US$67.45/bbl, an intraday low of US$65.85/bbl, and settled down by 0.395% to close at US$65.94/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 66.20-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 65.40-64.10 and 63.40-62.80-62.00. Buy above 65.40-62.00 with risk daily closing below 62.00, targeting 66.00-67.12 and 67.90-68.60-69.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1584/EUR, a high of US$1.1671/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.542% to close at US$1.1624/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1650-1.1990, targeting 1.1600-1.1570 and 1.1545-1.1470-1.1450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1600-1.1410 with risk below 1.1400 targeting 1.1650-1.1690-1.1790 and 1.1835-1.1890-1.1950.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Tuesday low of US$1.3397/GBP, a high of US$1.3474/GBP, and settled the day up 0.0514% to close at US$1.3408/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3340-1.3040 with a target of 1.3400-1.3470-1.3510 and 1.3550-1.3600-1.3710 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3400-1.3850 with targets at 1.3360-1.3300-1.3245 and 1.3200-1.3160-1.3100 with a stop loss of 1.3850.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday an intra‐day low of JPY148.17/USD an intraday high of 148.88/USD, and settled the day up by 0.2445% at JPY148.82/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 147.50-149.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 146.60-146.10-145.20 and 144.70-143.90-143.00. Long positions above 148.50-140.00 with targets of 148.90-149.35-149.90 with stops below 140.00.