Daily Markets

• The U.S. dollar edged lower Tuesday, but remained near its three-week high ahead of the release of the widely-watched U.S. inflation number that could provide clues on the path for monetary policy. The safe-haven dollar slipped slightly lower early Tuesday, with risk sentiment receiving a couple of boosts, namely China’s second-quarter GDP coming in a little stronger than expected, and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) expressing confidence that it will be able to start exporting its H20 chips to China again, suggesting a thaw in U.S.-China relations. However, trading activity is relatively limited as traders await the release of the latest U.S. consumer inflation numbers, with investors looking to see whether this year’s increase in tariffs will finally start to show up in headline figures. The CPI is expected to show a monthly rise of 0.3% in June, a rise from the 0.1% increase in the prior month, while the annual release is seen climbing to 2.6%, from 2.4% in May. Investors are eager for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts, but central bank officials have cited worries that tariffs will drive inflation higher as reasons for holding off on changing monetary policy. Spanish inflation came in slightly above expectations for June, but the main data focus in Europe Tuesday will be the German ZEW economic sentiment index for July, with traders looking for an update on the health of the largest economy in the region. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates eight times in its current easing cycle, including at its last meeting in June, bringing the key deposit rate to 2%. And the ECB should continue to loosen its monetary policy if threats to economic growth from international trade tensions and geopolitical instability strengthen the current disinflationary trends, governing council member Fabio Panetta said late last week. China’s economy expanded 5.2% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, slightly above market expectations of 5.1%, supported by resilient exports and government stimulus The strong print reflected limited impact from the U.S. trade war, as steep tariffs were in place for only a month before a mid-May de-escalation. Separate data released on Tuesday showed that the country’s industrial production ramped up more than expected in June, but retail sales rose less than forecast in June, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 5%.

Gold – XAU

Gold on its Monday intraday high of US$3366.24/oz and low of $3320.10/oz. Gold is up by 0.595% at US$3324.52/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3340-3500 keeping stop loss closing above 3500, targeting 3310-3300 and 3287-3274-3244. Buy in between 3328-3220 with risk below 3200 targeting 3354-3372-3380 and 3386-3404-3420.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday its intraday high of US$38.36/oz and low of US$37.56/oz settle down by down by 1.131% at US$37.67/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 37.80-33.10, targeting 38.25-38.90-39.50 and 39.90-40.50-41.10 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 33.00. Sell in between 38.40-42.00 with a stop loss above 42.00 targeting 37.80 and 37.20-36.10-35.60-35.30.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday high of US$67.60/bbl, an intraday low of US$65.50/bbl, and settled up by 2.510% to close at US$67.53/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 66.00-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 65.40-64.10 and 63.40-62.80-62.00. Buy above 65.40-62.00 with risk daily closing below 62.00, targeting 66.00-67.12 and 67.90-68.60-69.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1592/EUR, a high of US$1.1692/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.542% to close at US$1.1599/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1650-1.1990, targeting 1.1600-1.1570 and 1.1545-1.1470-1.1450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1600-1.1410 with risk below 1.1400 targeting 1.1650-1.1690-1.1790 and 1.1835-1.1890-1.1950.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday low of US$1.3377/GBP, a high of US$1.3466/GBP, and settled the day down 0.308% to close at US$1.3377/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3640-1.3040 with a target of 1.3710-1.3750-1.3790 and 1.3850-1.3890 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3710-1.3850 with targets at 1.3645-1.3600-1.3510 and 1.3470-1.3400-1.3360 with a stop loss of 1.3850.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday an intra‐day low of JPY147.54/USD an intraday high of 149.01/USD, and settled the day up by 0.775% at JPY148.81/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 147.50-149.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 146.60-146.10-145.20 and 144.70-143.90-143.00. Long positions above 148.50-140.00 with targets of 148.90-149.35-149.90 with stops below 140.00.