Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies kept to a tight range on Tuesday amid heightened uncertainty over U.S. trade tariffs before President Donald Trump’s July 9 deadline, while the dollar struggled to make headway. The greenback was pressured largely by increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the coming months. Political sparring over a sweeping tax and spending cut bill also weighed on the greenback, especially amid concerns over what the bill could entail for U.S. debt. The Chinese yuan’s USDCNY pair was flat but close to its strongest level since November following some upbeat purchasing managers index data this week. Caixin PMI data on Tuesday showed China’s manufacturing sector rose back into expansion territory in June, as local manufacturers benefited from Washington and Beijing agreeing to temporarily slash their respective trade tariffs. Trump on Monday lashed out against Tokyo for alleged unwillingness to buy American-grown rice, while also hinting at ending trade talks with Tokyo. Trump referred to the country as “spoiled” over rice imports, and warned that he would send Tokyo a letter which will likely set increased trade tariffs against the country. Trump’s comments come amid ongoing, high-level trade talks between Tokyo and Japan, although no agreement has been reached. Japan has largely stuck to its demand to be exempted from all U.S. tariffs. Japanese officials signaled on Tuesday that they were still pushing for a tariff agreement with the U.S., but would not compromise the country’s agricultural industry for a deal. The sparring comes with just over a week left until Trump’s July 9 deadline for countries to reach trade deals with Washington, or face steep tariffs on their exports to the United States. Japan is also facing a major rice shortage that pushed local rice prices to multi-year highs, a trend that stands to factor into higher food inflation. The dollar index and dollar index futures both fell slightly in Asian trade and were close to lows last seen in early-2022. The greenback was pressured by increased speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by September, with Goldman Sachs analysts stating that such a scenario was likely. Political sparring over Trump’s “big beautiful bill” also weighed on the dollar, amid growing concerns that the bill will increase the government deficit if passed in its current state. The tax and spending cut bill, which is currently being debated in the Senate, proposes to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, while also outlining cuts to government spending on social security. A non-partisan analysis showed the bill stands to increase government debt by $3.3 trillion in the next decade, raising concerns over the fiscal impact of the bill. Analysts have also warned that the bill will only provide a modest boost to the economy while increasing the fiscal deficit.

Gold – XAU

Gold on its Monday intraday high of US$3309.39/oz and low of $3302.63/oz. Gold is up by 0.817% at US$3302.63oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3300-3500 keeping stop loss closing above 3500, targeting 3300 and 3287-3274-3244. Buy in between 3284-3220 with risk below 3200 targeting 3311-3331-3354 and 3372-3386-3404

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday its intraday high of US$36.21/oz and low of US$35.94/oz settle down by up by 0.397% at US$36.08/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 35.90-33.10, targeting 36.50-37.00 and 37.80-38.25-38.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 29.00. Sell in between 36.30-39.60 with a stop loss above 40.00 targeting 36.10-35.60-35.30 and 35.00-34.85-34.30.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday high of US$65.17/bbl, an intraday low of US$63.89/bbl, and settled down by 0.0186% to close at US$64.37/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 64.50-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 64.10 and 63.40-62.80-62.00. Buy above 64.50-62.00 with risk daily closing below 62.00, targeting 64.90-66.00-67.12 and 67.90-68.60-69.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1707/EUR, a high of US$1.1787/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.4890% to close at US$1.1785/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1790-1.1990, targeting 1.1690-1.1650-1.1570 and 1.1545-1.1470-1.1450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1745-1.1410 with risk below 1.1010 targeting 1.1790-1.1835-1.1890 and 1.1950-1.1990.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday low of US$1.3673/GBP, a high of US$1.3740/GBP, and settled the day up 0.211% to close at US$1.3720/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3645-1.3040 with a target of 1.3710-1.3750-1.3790 and 1.3850-1.3890 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3670-1.3850 with targets at 1.3645-1.3600-1.3510 and 1.3470-1.3400-1.3360 with a stop loss of 1.3850.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday an intra‐day low of JPY143.77/USD an intraday high of 144.75/USD, and settled the day up by 0.219% at JPY143.96/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 144.20-149.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 145.20 and 144.50-143.90-143.00. Long positions above 143.50-140.00 with targets of 146.10-146.60-147.40 and 148.10-148.90-149.35 with stops below 138.00.