Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies firmed on Thursday, while the dollar slid to a more-than three-year low as U.S. President Donald Trump kept up his calls for lower interest rates and criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. A Wall Street Journal report that Trump was considering naming Powell’s successor much earlier than usual also dented the dollar, as did some bets that the Fed could next cut rates by as soon as July. Regional risk sentiment was upbeat as a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran appeared to be holding. Trump also signaled more nuclear talks with the Islamic state next week. The greenback was nursing steep losses this week, as safe haven demand for the dollar was also undermined by a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which appeared to be holding as of Thursday morning. The dollar’s losses deepened after the WSJ reported that Trump was considering naming Powell’s successor early in a bid to undermine the Fed Chair and shift market expectations for more interest rate cuts. The WSJ report came just hours after Trump once again lashed out against Powell while calling for more interest rate cuts. Trump had earlier this week said that U.S. rates need to be at least two to three points lower, claiming that higher rates would cause economic damage. Powell, on the other hand, has largely maintained a cautious outlook on rate cuts, and has also warned that Trump’s tariffs present an inflationary risk that could keep the central bank from acting sooner. Powell has also indicated that he will serve the remainder of his term, which expires in May 2026. Asian currencies benefited from a softer dollar, while improving risk appetite also drove some flows into regional units. The currency was encouraged by comments from Chinese officials that likely heralded more stimulus measures in the country. Local media reports said China’s National Development and Reform Commission will issue a new batch of consumer trade-in incentives and subsidies in July, likely offering more support for spending. The Taiwan dollar was a standout performer on Thursday, with the USDTWD pair sliding 1%. Other Asian currencies also advanced. The Japanese yen’s USDJPY pair fell 0.3%, with focus turning to Tokyo inflation data due on Friday. The print is likely to factor into the Bank of Japan’s plans to raise interest rates, with a recent uptick in price pressures driving up bets that a hike was imminent.

Gold – XAU

Gold on its Wednesday intraday high of US$3336.98/oz and low of $3396.78/oz. Gold is up by 0.229% at US$3331.85/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3356-3500 keeping stop loss closing above 3500, targeting 3345-3320-3300 and 3287-3274-3244. Buy in between 3352-3287 with risk below 3200 targeting 3372-3386-3404-and 3430-3438-3444-3460.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday its intraday high of US$36.30/oz and low of US$35.65/oz settle down by up by 0.941% at US$36.23/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 36.20-33.10, targeting 36.50-37.00 and 37.80-38.25-38.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 29.00. Sell in between 36.60-39.60 with a stop loss above 40.00 targeting 36.10-35.60-35.30 and 35.00-34.85-34.30.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Wednesday high of US$65.56/bbl, an intraday low of US$64.13/bbl, and settled down by 0.349% to close at US$64.46/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 65.10-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 64.90-64.10 and 63.40-62.80-62.00. Buy above 66.00-62.00 with risk daily closing below 62.00, targeting 67.12-67.90-68.60 and 69.50-70.05-71.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1589/EUR, a high of US$1.1664/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.423% to close at US$1.1656/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1620-1.1740, targeting 1.1470-1.1450-1.1420 and 1.1390-1.1300-1.1250 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1035. Buy above 1.1500-1.1010 with risk below 1.1010 targeting 1.1545-1.1570 and 1.16501.1690-1.1745.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday low of US$1.3590/GBP, a high of US$1.3671/GBP, and settled the day up 0.247% to close at US$1.3655/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3645-1.3040 with a target of 1.3710-1.3750-1.3790 and 1.3850-1.3890 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3670-1.3850 with targets at 1.3645-1.3600-1.3510 and 1.3470-1.3400-1.3360 with a stop loss of 1.3850.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday an intra‐day low of JPY144.60/USD an intraday high of 145.94/USD, and settled the day up by 0.1698% at JPY145.12/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 145.20-149.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 145.20 and 144.50-143.90-143.00. Long positions above 144.50-140.00 with targets of 146.10-146.60-147.40 and 148.10-148.90-149.35 with stops below 138.00.