Daily Markets

• The euro weakened against the dollar on Monday, while the greenback firmed after the U.S. attacked three key nuclear facilities in Iran over the weekend, putting markets on edge over Tehran’s response. The greenback was boosted by increased safe-haven demand, with other havens such as gold and the Japanese yen losing ground. Asian currencies were also nursing some losses from last week, following hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. A slew of Fed officials are set to speak in the coming days, potentially offering up more cues on the path of interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Investors eye Iran’s response to U.S. attacks Tehran has yet to give any clear indication of how it plans to respond to the U.S. attacks, saying that it reserved all options to defend itself. The Islamic republic has also warned of "everlasting consequences" and stepped up its aerial bombardments of Israel, which kicked off the violence 11 days ago with its own surprise strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure. Iran has called Trump a "gambler" and seemed to hint that the weekend strikes expanding the range of legitimate targets for its military. Trump, meanwhile, has raised the question of regime change in Iran in a social media post on Sunday. Media reports in Iran have suggested that the country is mulling blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil and gas supplies being sent around the world from the Middle East. Other reports have said that Iran may target one of several U.S. military bases located throughout the region. Some analysts have argued that although tensions in the Middle East have now intensified, the strikes have removed at least one shroud of uncertainty around whether Trump would move to strike Iran. Markets are now keen to see how the sudden decision, which came after Trump previously suggested that he would take as long as two weeks to deliberate on a possible strike on Iran, could impact sentiment, inflation and interest rates. Much of the worry over price growth stems from oil, with traders warning in recent days that an escalation in the Israel-Iran fighting could lead to a disruption of key crude supplies, particularly along the Strait of Hormuz along Iran’s southern coast. A subsequent spike in oil prices could refuel inflationary pressures, potentially persuading the Federal Reserve to further delay potential interest rate cuts. Crude prices were higher on Monday, paring back earlier gains.

Gold – XAU

Gold on its Monday intraday high of US$3396.78/oz and low of $3396.78/oz. Gold is down by 0.661% at US$3368.87/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3356-3500 keeping stop loss closing above 3500, targeting 3345-3320-3300 and 3287-3274-3244. Buy in between 3352-3287 with risk below 3200 targeting 3372-3386-3404-and 3430-3438-3444-3460.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday its intraday high of US$36.34/oz and low of US$35.81/oz settle down by up by 0.149% at US$36.08/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 35.60-33.10, targeting 36.50-37.00 and 37.80-38.25-38.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 29.00. Sell in between 36.10-38.60 with a stop loss above 39.00 targeting 35.60-35.30 and 35.00-34.85-34.30.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday high of US$76.66/bbl, an intraday low of US$66.33/bbl, and settled down by 12.15% to close at US$66.99/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 67.10-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 66.00-64.90-64.10 and 63.40-62.80-62.00. Buy above 66.00-62.00 with risk daily closing below 62.00, targeting 67.12-67.90-68.60 and 69.50-70.05-71.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1451/EUR, a high of US$1.1580/EUR, and settled the day up by 1.011% to close at US$1.1571/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1620-1.1740, targeting 1.1470-1.1450-1.1420 and 1.1390-1.1300-1.1250 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1035. Buy above 1.1500-1.1010 with risk below 1.1010 targeting 1.1545-1.1570 and 1.16501.1690-1.1745.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday low of US$1.3369/GBP, a high of US$1.3530/GBP, and settled the day up 0.97% to close at US$1.3517/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3520-1.3040 with a target of 1.3570-1.3600-1.3645 and 1.3700-1.3750-1.3790 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3570-1.3850 with targets at 1.3470-1.3400-1.3360-1.3300 with a stop loss of 1.3185.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday an intra‐day low of JPY146.00/USD an intraday high of 148.02/USD, and settled the day up by 0.2261% at JPY146.03/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 146.10-149.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 145.20 and 144.50-143.90-143.00. Long positions above 145.10-140.00 with targets of 146.10-146.60-147.40 and 148.10-148.90-149.35 with stops below 138.00.