Daily Markets

• The U.S. dollar inched lower Thursday, weighed by renewed trade concerns, while sterling slipped after data showed the U.K. economy contracted sharply in April. At 04:30 ET (08:30 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, dropped 0.3% to 98.280, after earlier falling to its weakest level since April 22. The dollar retreated Thursday, struggling to keep the bounce generated by U.S. President Trump stating on Wednesday that a trade framework with China is "done," subject to approval by him and President Xi Jinping. Markets seemed to be cautiously assessing the agreement, with analysts flagging that the announcement was short of many concrete details and possibly left the door open for a future flare-up in the spat between the world’s two largest economies. Trump added that the U.S. plans to send out letters to dozens of nations in the coming weeks that will set out the terms of trade deals, flagging that these countries will then have to choose whether to "take it, or [...] leave it." The president paused the implementation of his broadest tariffs in April, in a bid to give negotiators time to hammer out a series of agreements, but the 90-day halt is set to end on July 8. Also weighing on the greenback is the possibility of an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve after a benign consumer inflation print. There is another inflation print due later in the session, with economists expecting that the producer price index for final demand edged up by 0.2% month-over-month in May, after it fell by 0.5% in the prior month. In Europe, GBP/USD slipped 0.1% to 1.3540 after data showed that the U.K economy contracted in April, with gross domestic output shrinking by a larger-than-expected 0.3% in April from March - the biggest monthly drop since October 2023. The U.K central bank meets next week, having cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% at its last meeting in May. EUR/USD traded 0.4% higher to 1.1530, with the single currency also in demand against most other currencies, drawing support from relatively hawkish European Central Bank rhetoric. Last week, the ECB cut interest rates as expected but hinted at a pause in its year-long easing cycle after inflation finally returned to its 2% target.

Gold – XAU

Gold on its intraday high of US$3398.90/oz and low of $3386.53/oz. Gold is up by 0.88% at US$3386.53/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3430-3500 keeping stop loss closing above 3500, targeting 3420-3300-3287 and 3274-3244-3227. Buy in between 3420-3287 with risk below 3200 targeting 3430-3438-3444 and 3460-3470-3479-3490.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday its intraday high of US$36.43/oz and low of US$36.43/oz settle down by up by 0.256% at US$36.32/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 36.10-33.10, targeting 36.10-36.50-37.00 and 37.80-38.25-38.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 29.00. Sell in between 36.50-38.60 with a stop loss above 39.00 targeting 35.60-35.30-35.00 and 34.85-34.30-33.95-33.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday high of US$67.77/bbl, an intraday low of US$65.59/bbl, and settled down by 0.141% to close at US$67.51/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 64.70-66.00 with stop loss at 66.00; targeting 63.52-62.20-61.00-60.25 and 59.80-59.25-55.50. Buy above 64.00-56.00 with risk daily closing below 56.00, targeting 64.98-65.60-66.00 and 66.60-67.20-68.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1408/EUR, a high of US$1.1630/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.807% to close at US$1.1577/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1520-1.1740, targeting 1.1300 and 1.1250-1.1200 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1035. Buy above 1.1490-1.1010 with risk below 1.1010 targeting 1.1510-1.1545-1.1570 and 1.16501.1690-1.1745.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday low of US$1.3521/GBP, a high of US$1.3622/GBP, and settled the day up 0.470% to close at US$1.3609/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3510-1.3040 with a target of 1.3570-1.3600 and 1.3645-1.3700- 1.3750-1.3790 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3570-1.3850 with targets at 1.3470-1.3400-1.3360-1.3300 with a stop loss of 1.3185.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday an intra‐day low of JPY143.17/USD an intraday high of 144.52/USD, and settled the day up by 0.209% at JPY143.42/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 144.20-148.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 144.50-143.90 and 143.00-142.50-141.90. Long positions above 143.70-138.00 with targets of 145.20-146.10-146.60-147.40 and 148.10-148.90-149.35 with stops below 138.00.