Daily Markets

• The U.S. dollar edged higher Friday, enduring a choppy week as traders digested more uncertainty around trade policy ahead of a key inflation reading later in the session. The dollar has bounced higher Friday after ending the previous session lower as a federal court temporarily reinstated most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, just a day after another court had ordered an immediate block on them. The greenback could close this week higher, but the general direction of travel has been lower as the uncertainty around tariffs has prompted investors to flee U.S. assets in a search for alternatives, worried that Trump’s erratic policies could challenge the strength and outperformance of U.S. markets. Attention will now turn to the release of the latest PCE price index data - the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge - for more insight into inflation in the U.S. economy, and the U.S. central bank’s likely monetary policy response. The core PCE price index for April, a measure which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.1% on a monthly basis, up from the previous flat figure. Additionally, numbers from a series of German states also pointed to weak inflationary pressures in the eurozone’s largest economy, while Spain’s European Union-harmonised 12-month inflation rate fell in May to its lowest level since October. Subdued economic activity and cooling inflation point to another rate cut by the ECB when it next meets on June 5, with financial markets expecting that it would lower its key deposit facility rate to 2.00% from 2.25%. Such a move would mark the ECB’s eighth rate cut in a row. The market currently prices 58bp of ECB easing this year versus 50 bps for the Fed. That’s broadly in line with our house forecasts and suggests interest rate differentials (which currently suggest EUR/USD should be trading lower) may not be moving much from current levels,” said ING. GBP/USD traded 0.1% lower at 1.3480, on course for monthly gains over over 1.5% as elevated inflation keeps the Bank of England relatively restrained in terms of rate cuts Tokyo inflation usually acts as a bellwether for national Japanese inflation, with the print likely giving the Bank of Japan more headroom to raise interest rates. Markets were seen pricing in a greater chance for a 25 basis point hike in July, although hikes after that were doubtful.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday its intraday high of US$3322.64/oz and low of $3271.55/oz. Gold is down by 0.880% at US$3289.24/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3345-3420 keeping stop loss closing above 3420, targeting 3300-3287 and 3274-3244-3227. Buy in between 3320-3201 with risk below 3200 targeting 3320-3345-3358 and 3370-3386-3404.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday its intraday high of US$33.31/oz and low of US$32.74/oz settle down by down by 0.979% at US$32.96/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 33.10-27.10, targeting 33.90-34.30 and 34.60-35.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 33.50-35.60 with a stop loss above 34.00 targeting 32.50-31.90-30.90 and 30.50-29.90-29.20.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday high of US$61.31/bbl, an intraday low of US$59.39/bbl, and settled down by 0.471% to close at US$60.20/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 61.90-64.00 with stop loss at 64.00; targeting 60.25-59.80-59.25 and 55.50-54.75-54.00. Buy above 61.20-52.00 with risk daily closing below 52.00, targeting 62.20-63.15 and 63.52-64.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1312/EUR, a high of US$1.1389/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.158% to close at US$1.1345/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1350-1.1740, targeting 1..1300 and 1.1250-1.1200 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1035. Buy above 1.1300-1.1010 with risk below 1.1010 targeting 1.1340-1.1390-1.1420 and 1.1450-1.1470-1.1510.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday low of US$1.3447/GBP, a high of US$1.3509/GBP, and settled the day down 0.232% to close at US$1.3454/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3470-1.3040 with a target of 1.3510-1.3570-1.3600 and 1.3645-1.3700- 1.3750-1.3790 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3510-1.1385 with targets at 1.3470-1.3400-1.3360-1.3300 with a stop loss of 1.3185.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday an intra‐day low of JPY143.43/USD an intraday high of 144.43/USD, and settled the day down by 0.399% at JPY144.06/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 143.90-148.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 145.20-144.50-143.90 and 143.00-142.50-141.90. Long positions above 143.00-138.00 with targets of 143.90-146.10-146.60-147.40 and 148.10-148.90-149.35 with stops below 138.00.