Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies extended gains on Friday as the dollar was set for a weekly drop over U.S. fiscal deficit concerns, while the Japanese yen strengthened after strong inflation data raised odds of another Bank of Japan rate hike. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, fell 0.3% in Asia hours and was set to fall more than 1% for the week The Japanese yen gained on Friday, with its pair USD/JPY falling 0.4%. The currency was set to gain nearly 1.5% against the dollar this week. Data on Friday showed that Japan’s core consumer inflation accelerated to 3.5% year-on-year in April 2025, surpassing market expectations of 3.4% and marking the fastest pace in over two years. A more refined measure of inflation, the core CPI, which excludes both fresh food and energy, also edged up to 3.0% in April from 2.9% in March. This metric is closely monitored by the BOJ as it provides insights into underlying inflation trends. The recent acceleration in inflation coincides with substantial wage hikes secured during Japan’s spring labor negotiations. In response to these developments, market analysts are increasingly anticipating that the BOJ may consider another interest rate hike by July. The dollar was set for a weekly decline after the U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax-cut bill on Thursday. Dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” the legislation includes substantial tax cuts, increased military and border enforcement funding, and significant reductions to green energy incentives and social programs. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the bill is projected to add approximately $3.8 trillion to the national debt over the next decade This follows Moody’s recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing escalating debt levels. With a weaker greenback, Asian currencies continued their upward trend, although losses were capped by persisting trade uncertainty.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday its intraday high of US$3365.84/oz and low of $3287.01/oz. Gold is up by 1.927% at US$3357.55/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3358-3420 keeping stop loss closing above 3420, targeting 3344-3320-3300-3287 and 3274-3244-3227. Buy in between 3345-3201 with risk below 3200 targeting 3358-3370 and 3386-3404-3420-3437.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday its intraday high of US$33.52/oz and low of US$32.87/oz settle down by up by 1.234% at US$33.45/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 33.10-27.10, targeting 33.90-34.30 and 34.60-35.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 33.50-35.60 with a stop loss above 34.00 targeting 32.50-31.90-30.90 and 30.50-29.90-29.20.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday high of US$61.66/bbl, an intraday low of US$59.85/bbl, and settled up by 1.538% to close at US$61.52/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 61.00-64.00 with stop loss at 64.00; targeting 60.25-59.80-59.25 and 55.50-54.75-54.00. Buy above 60.50-52.00 with risk daily closing below 52.00, targeting 61.50-62.20-63.15 and 63.52-64.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1276/EUR, a high of US$1.1374/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.689% to close at US$1.1356/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1420-1.1740, targeting 1.1390-1.1340-1.1300 and 1.1250-1.1200 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1035. Buy above 1.1350-1.1010 with risk below 1.1010 targeting 1.420 and 1.1450-1.1470.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday low of US$1.3406/GBP, a high of US$1.3541/GBP, and settled the day up 0.871% to close at US$1.3534/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3570-1.3040 with a target of 1.3600-1.3645-1.3700 and 1.3750-1.3790-1.1384 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3600-1.1385 with targets at 1.3570-1.3550-1.3510 and 1.3470-1.3400-1.3360-1.3300 with a stop loss of 1.3185.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday an intra‐day low of JPY143.79/USD an intraday high of 144.39/USD, and settled the day up by % at JPY143.96/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 143.90-148.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 145.20-144.50-143.90 and 143.00-142.50-141.90. Long positions above 143.00-138.00 with targets of 143.90-146.10-146.60-147.40 and 148.10-148.90-149.35 with stops below 138.00.