Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies and the dollar held steady on Tuesday ahead of a crucial vote on sweeping U.S. tax cuts, while the Australian dollar dipped as markets awaited the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision later in the day. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan was largely unmoved after the country’s central bank reduced its benchmark loan prime rate as expected. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was largely unchanged after ticking lower in the previous few session. Market sentiment was also affected by global ratings agency Moody’s downgrading its investment grade rating on the U.S. by a notch over the country’s growing $36 trillion debt. The critical vote in Washington over U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax cuts bill, if approved, could further widen the nation’s fiscal deficit. The RBA will meet later in the day to decide its benchmark interest rates. Markets are widely expecting a 25 basis point cut on Tuesday amid easing inflationary pressures and risks of an economic slowdown from U.S. tariffs. A Reuters poll also showed that the central bank will cut its key rate by 25 basis points and twice more this year. The RBA held rates steady in its last meeting. “The optics of a Q1 trimmed mean annual inflation pace returning into the RBA’s 2-3% band for the first time in over three years, alongside ongoing global trade uncertainty make an open and shut case for a 25bp cut, albeit perhaps tinged with cautious language and references to data dependency,” Westpac analysts said in a note.The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) reduced its benchmark lending rates for the first time since October 2024, aiming to bolster economic growth amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was lowered by 10 basis points to 3.0%, and the five-year LPR, a key reference for mortgage rates, was cut to 3.5% from 3.6% However, Investors were still cautious around further trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, after they temporarily lowered steep tariffs placed on each other. China’s Ministry of Commerce on Monday accused Washington of jeopardizing recent trade discussions in Geneva, citing the U.S. Commerce Department’s advisory against the use of Huawei chips. The Chinese yuan’s offshore USD/CNH and the onshore USD/CNY pairs were both muted. Other regional currencies were also unchanged, including the Japanese yen’s USD/JPY pair.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday its intraday high of US$3214.04/oz and low of $3204.48/oz. Gold is up by 0.146% at US$3211.34/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3220-3420 keeping stop loss closing above 3420, targeting 3227-3210-3200 and 3193-3180-3164. Buy in between 3201-3108 with risk below 3100 targeting 3245-3260-3274 and 3290-3320-3345.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday its intraday high of US$32.23/oz and low of US$32.15/oz settle down by down by 0.114% at US$32.16/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 32.30-27.10, targeting 33.50-33.90-34.30 and 34.60-35.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 33.10-34.00 with a stop loss above 34.00 targeting 32.50-31.90-30.90 and 30.50-29.90-29.20.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday high of US$62.08/bbl, an intraday low of US$61.95/bbl, and settled up by 0.129% to close at US$62.04/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 61.50-64.00 with stop loss at 64.00; targeting 60.25-59.80-59.25 and 55.50-54.75-54.00. Buy above 61.00-52.00 with risk daily closing below 52.00, targeting 61.50-62.20-63.15 and 63.52-64.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.12254/EUR, a high of US$1.1246/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.114% to close at US$1.1231/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1200-1.1740, targeting 1.1340-1.1300-1.1250-1.1200 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1035. Buy above 1.1170-1.1010 with risk below 1.1010 targeting 1.1200-1.1262-1.1300 and 1.1340-1.1370-1.420.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday low of US$1.3362/GBP, a high of US$1.3369/GBP, and settled the day up 0.0996% to close at US$1.3363/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3300-1.3040 with a target of 1.3360-1.3400 and 1.3435-1.3470-1.3510 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3360-1.3600 with targets at 1.3206-1.3150-1.3110 and 1.3090-1.3040-1.3010 with a stop loss of 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday an intra‐day low of JPY144.76/USD an intraday high of 145.17/USD, and settled the day down by 0.210% at JPY144.80/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 146.10-149.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 145.20-144.50-143.90 and 143.00-142.50-141.90. Long positions above 147.20-138.00 with targets of 146.10-146.60-147.40 and 148.10-148.90-149.35 with stops below 138.00.