Daily Markets

• The U.S. dollar retreated Friday, as benign inflation data pointed to more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year. The gains at the start of the week were propelled by a U.S.-China trade truce, which boosted the dollar on hopes that a potentially economically damaging trade war had been averted. However, further gains have been harder to come by as recent data has pointed to a slowing economy, something the Federal Reserve will likely have to address in time. U.S. data released on Thursday showed soft retail sales as well as producer prices unexpectedly falling in April. The PPI figures came on the heels of a tame consumer price reading earlier in the week, cementing bets that the Fed is likely to cut rates at least twice this year. As far as Friday’s data is concerned, housing starts are expected to have increased in April, while import prices should have dropped on the back of lower oil prices, ahead of the University of Michigan sentiment survey. That said, the euro could struggle later in the year, with Barclays still expecting a technical eurozone recession in the second half of 2025, even after the U.S.-China trade deal. "Overall, we remain downbeat about the growth outlook in the euro area because uncertainty remains very elevated and the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs between the European Union and the U.S. remain at a technical level and there are no signs of progress," Barclays said in a note. GBP/USD rose 0.1% to 1.3314, helped by data, released on Thursday, showing that Britain’s economy grew more strongly than expected in the first quarter of 2025 In Asia, USD/JPY traded 0.3% lower to 145.29, after data showed that Japan’s economy contracted more than expected in the first quarter of 2025, shrinking at an annualized rate of 0.7%, marking its first decline in a year. The contraction exceeded the anticipated 0.2% decline and was driven by a 0.6% drop in exports and flat consumer spending, reflecting the impact of U.S. tariffs and global trade uncertainties.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday its intraday high of US$3252.03/oz and low of $3154.26/oz. Gold is up by 1.187% at US$3202.55/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3220-3420 keeping stop loss closing above 3420, targeting 3227-3210-3200 and 3193-3180-3164. Buy in between 3201-3108 with risk below 3100 targeting 3245-3260-3274 and 3290-3320-3345.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday its intraday high of US$32.67/oz and low of US$31.84/oz settle down by down by 1.091% at US$32.26/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 32.30-27.10, targeting 33.50-33.90-34.30 and 34.60-35.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 33.10-34.00 with a stop loss above 34.00 targeting 32.50-31.90-30.90 and 30.50-29.90-29.20.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday high of US$62.11/bbl, an intraday low of US$60.73/bbl, and settled up by 1.0986% to close at US$61.83/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 61.50-64.00 with stop loss at 64.00; targeting 60.25-59.80-59.25 and 55.50-54.75-54.00. Buy above 61.00-52.00 with risk daily closing below 52.00, targeting 61.50-62.20-63.15 and 63.52-64.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1130/EUR, a high of US$1.1218/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.213% to close at US$1.1164/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1200-1.1740, targeting 1.1340-1.1300-1.1250-1.1200 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1035. Buy above 1.1170-1.1010 with risk below 1.1010 targeting 1.1200-1.1262-1.1300 and 1.1340-1.1370-1.420.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday low of US$1.3249/GBP, a high of US$1.3319/GBP, and settled the day down 0.116% to close at US$1.3281/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3300-1.3040 with a target of 1.3360-1.3400 and 1.3435-1.3470-1.3510 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3360-1.3600 with targets at 1.3206-1.3150-1.3110 and 1.3090-1.3040-1.3010 with a stop loss of 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday an intra‐day low of JPY144.91/USD an intraday high of 146.09/USD, and settled the day up by 0.025% at JPY145.65/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 146.10-149.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 145.20-144.50-143.90 and 143.00-142.50-141.90. Long positions above 147.20-138.00 with targets of 146.10-146.60-147.40 and 148.10-148.90-149.35 with stops below 138.00.