Daily Markets

• The U.S. dollar slipped slightly lower Tuesday, but remained near recent highs on lingering optimism following the trade deal between the United States and China. After weekend negotiations in Geneva, China and the U.S. agreed to a 90-day pause on tariffs imposed on each other, raising hope that the trade war between the world’s two largest economies will not lead to a tariff-led recession. The agreement effectively sets a cap and floor on U.S. tariffs, with China’s tariff rate now at 30% - significantly lower than many had anticipated - providing greater clarity and reducing the peak of trade war uncertainty. This saw the dollar post strong gains, but a degree of calm has now returned to the foreign exchange markets ahead of the release of the latest U.S. inflation number. The April consumer price index is seen coming in at 2.4% on an annual basis, matching March’s level, a monthly rise of 0.3%. The core figure, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, is expected to rise 0.3% on the month, and 2.8% on the year. Many economists have warned that Trump’s tariff policies could refuel inflationary pressures in the U.S., while recent consumer surveys have indicated that household are bracing for greater price gains in the months ahead The “April core CPI data is still expected at a sticky 0.3% month-on-month and should feed into the narrative that the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates,” said analysts at ING, in a note. In Europe, EUR/USD traded 0.2% higher to 1.1107, with the single currency recovering to a degree from its sharp 1.4% fall overnight. There could also be some good news later in the session, from the release of the May German investor sentiment survey by the ZEW economic research institute. The index is expected to rebound after tariff concerns sent morale to the lowest since the start of the Ukraine war GBP/USD rose 0.3% to 1.3211, with sterling holding up despite data showing a further cooling in the U.K. work force. Data released earlier Tuesday showed a further slowdown in Britain’s jobs market, as employment fell and growth in wages cooled, with the latest unemployment rate rising to 4.5% in the three months to March, from 4.4%.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Tuesday its intraday high of US$3265.40/oz and low of $3215.86/oz. Gold is up by 0.366% at US$3249.78/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3230-3420 keeping stop loss closing above 3420, targeting 3227-3210-3200 and 3193-3180-3164. Buy in between 3220-3108 with risk below 3100 targeting 3245-3260-3274 and 3290-3320-3345.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Tuesday its intraday high of US$33.21/oz and low of US$32.50/oz settle down by up by 0.920% at US$32.88/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 32.30-27.10, targeting 33.50-33.90-34.30 and 34.60-35.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 33.10-34.00 with a stop loss above 34.00 targeting 32.50-31.90-30.90 and 30.50-29.90-29.20.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday high of US$63.16/bbl, an intraday low of US$60.62/bbl, and settled up by 1.10% to close at US$61.57/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 62.90-64.00 with stop loss at 64.00; targeting 60.25-59.80-59.25 and 55.50-54.75-54.00. Buy above 61.20-52.00 with risk daily closing below 52.00, targeting 61.50-62.20-63.15 and 63.52-64.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Tuesday an intraday low of US$1.1080/EUR, a high of US$1.1193/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.924% to close at US$1.1184/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1200-1.1740, targeting 1.1340-1.1300-1.1250-1.1200 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1035. Buy above 1.1170-1.1010 with risk below 1.1010 targeting 1.1200-1.1262-1.1300 and 1.1340-1.1370-1.420.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday low of US$1.3166/GBP, a high of US$1.3314/GBP, and settled the day up 0.986% to close at US$1.3303/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3300-1.3040 with a target of 1.3360-1.3400 and 1.3435-1.3470-1.3510 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3360-1.3600 with targets at 1.3206-1.3150-1.3110 and 1.3090-1.3040-1.3010 with a stop loss of 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Tuesday an intra‐day low of JPY147.36/USD an intraday high of 148.44/USD, and settled the day down by 0.663% at JPY147.42/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 148.10-149.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 145.20-144.50-143.90 and 143.00-142.50-141.90. Long positions above 147.20-138.00 with targets of 146.10-146.60-147.40 and 148.10-148.90-149.35 with stops below 138.00.