Daily Markets

• The dollar looks set to notch its third-straight weekly win, but that hasn’t shaken the confidence of traders piling on bearish bets for the greenback to resume its slide, according to the latest Bank of America FX and Rates Sentiment Survey. Shorting the dollar has emerged as the highest conviction trade for 2025, the survey found, with nearly a third of fund managers naming it their top idea. “Short USD is highest conviction trade & survey participants are close to benchmark duration in both US & core Europe,” Bank of America strategists said, underscoring that investors are positioning for a turn even as the dollar remains firm. Despite the greenback’s recent run, conviction in further gains is fading. Global investors have reduced their USD FX exposure to near historic lows, according to the survey. Investors haven’t meaningfully rotated out of U.S. duration, suggesting that “de-dollarization” is playing out more through hedging than outright asset reallocation. Valuation and narrowing rate differentials are now seen as the main headwinds for the dollar, with U.S. fiscal concerns also cited as a growing risk. A majority of respondents in the survey, expect U.S. exceptionalism to fade this year, with almost half seeing the dollar index peaking in the first quarter and another quarter expecting a peak in the second quarter. On the policy front, meanwhile, most participants believe trade policy uncertainty will decline in the coming months, though a plurality see Trump administration policies as stagflationary. The survey also found that the risk of the Fed holding rates steady-contrary to market pricing for cuts-remains a key potential tailwind for the dollar, but most are betting that this won’t be enough to sustain the rally. While the dollar’s winning streak hasn’t ended yet, the consensus among fund managers is clear: the next big move could be down, not up.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday its intraday high of US$3347.47/oz and low of $3274.64/oz. Gold is up by 0.553% at US$3325.72/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3287-3420 keeping stop loss closing above 3420, targeting 3245 and 3228-3210-3200. Buy in between 3270-3208 with risk below 3200 targeting 3290-3320-3345 and 3358-3370-3390.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday its intraday high of US$32.85/oz and low of US$32.20/oz settle down by up by 0.893% at US$32.73/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 32.30-27.10, targeting 33.50-33.90-34.30 and 34.60-35.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 33.10-34.00 with a stop loss above 34.00 targeting 32.50-31.90-30.90 and 30.50-29.90-29.20.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday high of US$61.04/bbl, an intraday low of US$59.45/bbl, and settled up by 1.200% to close at US$60.62/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 60.25-62.00 with stop loss at 62.00; targeting 59.255.50-54.75-54.00 and 53.50-52.90. Buy above 59.80-52.00 with risk daily closing below 52.00, targeting 59.80-60.25-61.00 and 61.50-62.20-63.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1195/EUR, a high of US$1.1292/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.256% to close at US$1.1223/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1300-1.1740, targeting 1.1340-1.1300-1.1250-1.1200 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1035. Buy above 1.1200-1.1010 with risk below 1.1010 targeting 1.1340-1.1370-1.420 and 1.1450-1.1520-1.1550-1.1590.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday low of US$1.3211/GBP, a high of US$1.3322/GBP, and settled the day up 0.450% to close at US$1.3304/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3206-1.3040 with a target of 1.3300-1.3360-1.3400 and 1.3435-1.3470-1.3510 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3300-1.3600 with targets at 1.3206-1.3150-1.3110 and 1.3090-1.3040-1.3010 with a stop loss of 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday an intra‐day low of JPY144.81/USD an intraday high of 146.18/USD, and settled the day down by 0.337% at JPY145.37/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 146.10-149.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 145.20-144.50-143.90 and 143.00-142.50-141.90. Long positions above 145.20-138.00 with targets of 146.10-146.60-147.40 and 148.10-148.90-149.35 with stops below 138.00.