Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies moved little in holiday-thinned trade on Monday as traders remained skittish over U.S. tariffs and a Chinese trade war, while the Australian dollar firmed after the country’s Labor party won the 2025 elections. The U.S. dollar drifted lower, but retained some gains from last week after data showed the American labor market remained solid despite heightened trade and economic headwinds. Market holidays in China, Japan, and several other countries kept Asian trading volumes muted on Monday. But the Japanese yen firmed after losing ground last week, with the USDJPY pair falling 0.5%. The Taiwan dollar was a standout performer, with the USDTWD pair sliding 3.2% amid increased optimism over the Taiwanese economy, especially following some favorable comments on U.S.-China trade, to which Taiwan is heavily exposed. The Labor victory grants Prime Minister Anthony Albanese a second consecutive term- the first for an Australian PM in two decades, and will largely allow Labor to extend its policies of increased social support and government subsidies. This notion was seen supporting the Aussie, as were comments from Treasurer Jim Chalmers that the government will prioritize navigating U.S. trade ructions and supporting the domestic economy. The Labor victory also comes just weeks before a Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged- a move that also presents some support for the Aussie. The dollar index and dollar index futures fell 0.3% in Asian trade, pulling back after a 0.5% rise in the prior week. Stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data had boosted the dollar on Friday, given that it showed the U.S. labor market remained strong despite trade and other economic headwinds. The greenback was pressured by persistent uncertainty over U.S. trade tariffs, after President Donald Trump said over the weekend that he had no immediate plans to open dialogue with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Trump signaled that the U.S. was preparing to sign trade agreements with several countries, and that his administration was in some dialogue with China. Still, a U.S.-China trade deal represents the biggest point of uncertainty for markets, especially after the two became embroiled in a bitter trade war and tariff exchange through April.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday its intraday high of US$3240.76/oz and low of $3222.71/oz. Gold is down by 0.038% at US$3240.76/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3265-3461 keeping stop loss closing above 3461, targeting 3245-3232-3210 and 3200-3180-3167. Buy in between 3245-3208 with risk below 3200 targeting 3265-3280-3300 and 3310-3320-3345.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday its intraday high of US$32.69/oz and low of US$31.91/oz settle down by 0.583% at US$32.38/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 32.50-27.10, targeting 33.50-33.90-34.30 and 34.60-35.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 33.10-34.00 with a stop loss above 34.00 targeting 32.50-31.90-30.90 and 30.50-29.90-29.20.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday high of US$59.17/bbl, an intraday low of US$56.10/bbl, and settled up by 1.28% to close at US$58.66/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 56.60-62.00 with stop loss at 62.00; targeting 55.50-54.75-54.00 and 53.50-52.90. Buy above 55.00-52.00 with risk daily closing below 52.00, targeting 56.50-57.90-58.50 and 59.20-59.80-61.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1273/EUR, a high of US$1.1380/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.110% to close at US$1.13001/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1384-1.1740, targeting 1.1340-1.1300-1.1250-1.1200 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1035. Buy above 1.1370-1.1010 with risk below 1.1010 targeting 1.1450-1.1520-1.1550-1.1590 and 1.1630-1.1690-1.1740.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday low of US$1.3259/GBP, a high of US$1.3330/GBP, and settled the day down 0.0180% to close at US$1.3268/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3360-1.3040 with a target of 1.3400-1.3435-1.3470 and 1.3510-1.3550-1.3600 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3390-1.3600 with targets at 1.3300-1.3266 and 1.3206-1.3150-1.3110 with a stop loss of 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday an intra‐day low of JPY143.72/USD an intraday high of 145.91/USD, and settled the day down by 0.213% at JPY144.97/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 145.50-149.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 144.00-143.40-142.50-141.90 and 140.60-140.00-139.60. Long positions above 144.20-138.00 with targets of 145.20 and 146.00-146.60-147.40 with stops below 138.00.