Daily Markets

• The dollar has perked up recently as news around trade deals stoked optimism as a sign of things to come in the next 100 days of the Trump administration. But diversification away from the greenback is likely to persist, as concerns about the U.S. ability to pay its debt-or its counterparty risk-aren’t likely to disappear easily, Macquarie analysts said in a recent note. The US Dollar Index was down nearly 10% since the start of Trump’s second term-the steepest drop for a new administration in decades. This reflects skepticism about U.S. assets, driven by aggressive trade policy, political uncertainty, and concerns about America’s long-term fiscal trajectory. While the next hundred days of the Trump administration are expected to be "marked by ’concessions and negotiations’ between the US and its allies and trading partners, negative structural changes will likely limit upside." Over the longer term, the sun could be beginning to set on the dollar as the bona fide safe-haven currency, as the impact of the Trump administration’s actions has dented the integrity of some US institutions and systems, including the system of checks and balances. This highlights the need to diversify counterparty risk away from the US. "The USD will become less an essential currency, and more an alternative among a few comparable choices, including the EUR," Macquarie said.

Gold – XAU

Gold onThursday its intraday high of US$352.93/oz and low of $3267.86/oz. Gold is down by 1.54% at US$3238.01/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3265-3461 keeping stop loss closing above 3461, targeting 3245-3232-3210 and 3200-3180-3167. Buy in between 3245-3208 with risk below 3200 targeting 3265-3280-3300 and 3310-3320-3345.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday its intraday high of US$3265/oz and low of US$31.65/oz settle down by 0.583% at US$32.38/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 32.50-27.10, targeting 33.50-33.90-34.30 and 34.60-35.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 33.10-34.00 with a stop loss above 34.00 targeting 32.50-31.90-30.90 and 30.50-29.90-29.20.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday high of US$59.17/bbl, an intraday low of US$56.10/bbl, and settled up by 1.28% to close at US$58.66/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 61.60-68.00 with stop loss at 68.00; targeting 63.60-62.90-62.10-61.50-61.00 and 60.25-59.80-59.20. Buy above 61.00-58.00 with risk daily closing below 58.00, targeting 62.75-63.50-64.30-65.20 and 66.00-66.90-67.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1265/EUR, a high of US$1.1340/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.347% to close at US$1.1287/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1384-1.1740, targeting 1.1340-1.1300-1.1250-1.1200 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1035. Buy above 1.1370-1.1010 with risk below 1.1010 targeting 1.1450-1.1520-1.1550-1.1590 and 1.1630-1.1690-1.1740.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday low of US$1.3279/GBP, a high of US$1.33446/GBP, and settled the day down 1.0641% to close at US$1.32711/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3360-1.3040 with a target of 1.3400-1.3435-1.3470 and 1.3510-1.3550-1.3600 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3390-1.3600 with targets at 1.3300-1.3266 and 1.3206-1.3150-1.3110 with a stop loss of 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday an intra‐day low of JPY142.83/USD an intraday high of 145.72/USD, and settled the day down by 1.076% at JPY145.27/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 145.50-149.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 144.00-143.40-142.50-141.90 and 140.60-140.00-139.60. Long positions above 144.20-138.00 with targets of 145.20 and 146.00-146.60-147.40 with stops below 138.00.