Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies weakened on Monday, while the dollar firmed slightly amid little relief from persistent uncertainty over a dire trade war between the U.S. and China. Traders largely digested mixed signals on trade talks from Washington and Beijing, with comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent adding to doubts that negotiations were taking place. Most regional currencies were nursing steep losses in recent weeks, as risk appetite deteriorated amid few signs of a U.S.-China deescalation. The Japanese yen was an exception to this trend, as it benefited from increased safe haven demand. But the yen faces a crucial test this week with a Bank of Japan meeting. The greenback was battered by heightened concerns over the U.S. economy under Trump’s trade agenda, with a recent sell-down in Treasuries also reflecting broader market anxiety. Bessent on Sunday said he did not know whether Trump had spoken to Chinese President Xi Jinping over the trade war, and that recent dialogue with Chinese officials had taken place under the International Monetary Fund, and not as trade negotiations. Bessent’s comments added to more doubts over Trump’s claims that trade talks with China were taking place- a claim that Beijing had categorically denied. The differing signals, coupled with Trump’s tendency to flip-flop on his tariff plans, kept markets largely on edge. Bessent’s comments also came before a May 2 deadline for an end to de minimis exemptions on cheap Chinese imports. China had doled out a series of weaker midpoint fixes through April, as it sought to weaken the yuan and bolster its exports in the face of steep U.S. tariffs. Chinese officials said on Monday that they will dole out more economic support, and that they were confident the country will achieve the government’s 5% annual growth target. Focus this week is on key Chinese purchasing managers index data for April, which is set to provide more insight into the impact of a bitter tariff exchange with the United States. Broader Asian currencies moved in a flat-to-low range, as ructions between the world’s biggest economies kept traders risk-averse. The Japanese yen firmed slightly, with the USD/JPY pair falling 0.1%. Focus this week is squarely on a BOJ meeting, with the central bank expected to keep rates unchanged. Traders will be watching just what the BOJ will signal for future policy, as it navigates an environment of rising domestic inflation and heightened global trade uncertainty.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday its intraday high of US$3370.55/oz and low of $3264.89/oz. Gold is down by 1.844% at US$3319.15/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3310-3461 keeping stop loss closing above 3461, targeting 3287 and 3280-3260-3245. Buy in between 3280-3208 with risk below 3200 targeting 3310-3320-3345 and 3358-3370-3390.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday its intraday high of US$33.67/oz and low of US$32.75/oz settle down by 1.471% at US$33.07/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 32.50-27.10, targeting 33.50-33.90-34.30 and 34.60-35.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 33.10-34.00 with a stop loss above 34.00 targeting 32.50-31.90-30.90 and 30.50-29.90-29.20.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday high of US$63.14/bbl, an intraday low of US$61.59/bbl, and settled up by 0.485% to close at US$62.91/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 62.60-68.00 with stop loss at 68.00; targeting 63.60-62.90-62.10-61.50-61.00 and 60.25-59.80-59.20. Buy above 62.00-58.00 with risk daily closing below 58.00, targeting 62.75-63.50-64.30-65.20 and 66.00-66.90-67.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1315/EUR, a high of US$1.1390/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.164% to close at US$1.1363/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1420-1.1740, targeting 1.1385 and 1.1340-1.1300-1.1250-1.1200 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1035. Buy above 1.1390-1.1010 with risk below 1.1010 targeting 1.1450-1.1520-1.1550-1.1590 and 1.1630-1.1690-1.1740.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday low of US$1.3150/GBP, a high of US$1.3338/GBP, and settled the day down % to close at US$1.3363/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3360-1.3040 with a target of 1.3400-1.3435-1.3470 and 1.3510-1.3550-1.3600 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3390-1.3600 with targets at 1.3300-1.3266 and 1.3206-1.3150-1.3110 with a stop loss of 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday an intra‐day low of JPY142.44/USD an intraday high of 144.02/USD, and settled the day up by 0.812% at JPY143.67/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 143.90-146.00 with risk above 146.00 targeting 143.40-142.50-141.90 and 140.60-140.00-139.60. Long positions above 143.20-138.00 with targets of 143.90-144.50-145.00 and 146.00-146.60-147.40 with stops below 138.00.