Daily Markets

• The U.S. dollar fell further Wednesday, a casualty of shaken confidence in the world’s largest economy in the wake of the Trump administration’s trade upheaval, while the pound gained despite soft inflation data. At 04:40 ET (08:40 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, slipped 0.5% to 99.452, down over 8% over the course of this year so far. The dollar has weakened further following new moves by the Trump administration in the trade war with China, the two largest economies in the world. U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered a probe into potential new tariffs on all U.S. critical minerals imports, which are heavily skewed towards China, as part of his revolution of global trade. Trump kickstarted a bitter trade war with China earlier this month, raising tariffs against the country to a cumulative 145%. China retaliated with a 125% duty on U.S. goods. Much later sees the release of data showing the extent of Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasurys for February, with markets looking to see if the Chinese government is selling its U.S. assets as a result of this trade conflict. Also of interest will be the release of U.S. retail sales data later in the session, followed by a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, following on from the surprisingly dovish tone set by his colleague Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday. In Europe, EUR/USD traded 0.7% higher to 1.1364, with the single currency finding supporters once more after a pullback from last week’s surge to a three-year high of 1.1474. Eurozone inflation is due later in the session, and is expected to show a cooling to annual growth of 2.2% in March, from 2.3% the prior month, providing the European Central Bank with more impetus to agree to a 25-basis-point cut on Thursday, bringing the ECB’s deposit rate to 2.25%. GBP/USD traded 0.5% higher to 1.3283, near a six-month hgh, despite U.K. inflation cooling in March, raising the likelihood that the Bank of England cuts interest rates at its next meeting in May. The consumer price index slowed to an annual rate of 2.6% in March from 2.8% in February, below analysts expectations of a 2.7% release. The U.K. central bank held interest rates at 4.5% in March, with the voting pattern showing 8-1 in favor of holding rates, while one member voted to cut USD/CNY traded 0.1% higher to 7.3236, with trade tensions between China and the U.S. persisting still weighing on the Chinese currency as data showed that China’s economy grew more than expected in the first quarter of 2025. China’s GDP grew 5.4% year-on-year in the three months to March 3, above the average forecast of 5.2% growth. Other data on Wednesday showed Chinese industrial production surged 7.7% in March, beating expectations, as local producers front-loaded exports ahead of steep April 2 U.S. tariffs imposed by President Trump.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday its intraday high of US$3342.80/oz and low of $3229.62/oz. Gold is up by 3.46% at US$3342.74/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3280-3330 keeping stop loss closing above 3330, targeting 3270-3249-32403200-3180-3167 and 3151-3136-3120. Buy in between 3270-3150 with risk below 3150 targeting 3280-3287-3300 AND 3310-3320-3330

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday its intraday high of US$33.09/oz and low of US$32.25/oz settle up by 1.365% at US$32.74/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 32.90-27.10, targeting 30 j.50-30.90-31.40 ad 32.10-32.60-33.10-33.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 32.50-34.00 with a stop loss above 34.00 targeting 30.90-30.50-29.90 and 29.20-28.60-27.80.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Wednesday high of US$62.25/bbl, an intraday low of US$59.85/bbl, and settled up by 1.603% to close at US$61.89/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 63.00-65.00 with stop loss at 64.00; targeting 62.10-61.50-61.00 and 60.25-59.80-59.20. Buy above 61.25-53.00 with risk daily closing below 53.00, targeting 62.75-63.50-64.20.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1277/EUR, a high of US$1.1398/EUR, and settled the day up by 1.072% to close at US$1.1398/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1400-1.1035, targeting 1.1250-1.1200-1.1145 and 1.1107-1.0935-1.0890 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1035. Buy above 1.1340-1.1010 with risk below 1.1010 targeting 1.1420-1.1490-1/1520 and 1.1550.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Tuesday low of US$1.3211/GBP, a high of US$1.3291/GBP, and settled the day up 0.0907% to close at US$1.3238/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2990-1.2690 with a target of 1.3040-1.0390 with a stop loss closing below 1.2380. Sell in between 1.2850-1.3140 with targets at 1.2753-1.2690 and 1.2660-1.2590-1.2510 with a stop loss of 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday an intra‐day low of JPY141.62/USD an intraday high of 143.26/USD, and settled the day down by 0.874% at JPY141.75/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 144.00-150.50 with risk above 151.00 targeting 143.90-143.20-142.50 and 141.90-141.00. Long positions above 143.10-141.50 with targets of 144.50-145.00 and 146.00-146.50-147.10 and 148.00-148.60-149.00 with stops below 143.00.