Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies weakened on Monday, with the dollar also declining amid heightened fears of a U.S. recession and global economic disruptions from U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs. The Chinese yuan retreated after Beijing retaliated against the increased tariffs over the weekend, although apparent intervention by the People’s Bank of China limited the yuan’s decline. Other Asian currencies weakened sharply as Trump signaled no intent to back down from his plans for sweeping reciprocal tariffs against major global economies. The dollar index and dollar index futures moved little in Asian trade after sliding to and recovering from a six-month low last week. Trump over the weekend said his tariffs will remain until the U.S. trade deficit with major economies is rectified. Trump also appeared unperturbed by a recent slump in global markets, stating that his tariffs were “medicine” for markets. Trump had last week unveiled plans to impose sweeping tariffs on several major economies, in a bid to pressure them into lowering their tariffs on American goods. These tariffs are set to take effect from April 9, with Trump warning that tariffs against more sectors were also on the way. While protectionist policies usually tend to benefit the dollar, the greenback was slammed by heightened concerns over a U.S. recession under Trump. Markets were also seen sharply increasing their bets on more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. US Treasury yields plummeted on this notion, further denting the dollar This came after Beijing retaliated against Trump’s tariffs with a 34% duty on U.S. goods, while also threatening more measures against Washington.China was among the worst-hit by Trump’s tariffs, and is now facing a 54% cumulative tariff on its exports to the U.S. Such a scenario bodes poorly for the export-reliant Chinese economy, and could also invite more stimulus measures and monetary easing from Beijing to help offset the impact of the tariffs. But any more monetary easing is likely to further pressure the yuan. Among broader Asian currencies,the Japanese yen was the sole outlier, briefly hitting a six-month high on increased safe haven demand. The yen was also buoyed by strong wage data, which increases the odds of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday its intraday high of US$3136.52/oz and low of $3015.55/oz. Gold is down by 2.45% at US$3038.38/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3035-3096 keeping stop loss closing above 3096, targeting 3020-3010-2990 and 2979-2970-2955-2940. Buy in between 3202-2940 with risk below 2940 targeting 3035-3050-3059 and 3069-3077-3089.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday its intraday high of US$31.97/oz and low of US$29.16/oz settle down by 7.078% at US$29.53/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 29.90-27.10, targeting 30.50-30.90-31.40 ad 32.10-32.60-33.10-33.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 30.50-34.00 with a stop loss above 34.00 targeting 29.90-29.20-28.60 and

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday high of US$66.54/bbl, an intraday low of US$60.23/bbl, and settled down by 6.22% to close at US$62.06/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 60.50-64.00 with stop loss at 64.00; targeting 60.25-59.80-59.20 and 58.50-58.00-57.00. Buy above 60.10-57.00 with risk daily closing below 57.00, targeting 60.50-61.00-61.90 and 62.50-63.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1107/EUR, a high of US$1.1107/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.839% to close at US$1.0957/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0790-1.1035, targeting 1.0800-1.0725-1.0650 and 1.0600-1.0540-1.0490 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1035. Buy above 1.0750-1.0490 with risk below 1.0490 targeting 1.0830-1.0890-1.0935 and 1.0990-1.1035.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made a low of US$1.2851/GBP, a high of US$1.3112/GBP, and settled the day down 1.554% to close at US$1.2894/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2900-1.2380 with a target of 1.2920-1.2960-1.2990 and 1.3040-1.0390-1.3140 with a stop loss closing below 1.2380. Sell in between 1.2960-1.3140 with targets at 1.2920-1.2850-1.2790-1.2753 and 1.2660-1.2590-1.2510 with a stop loss of 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday an intra‐day low of JPY153.83/USD an intraday high of 155.35/USD, and settled the day up by 0.660% at JPY154.63/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 145.90-150.50 with risk above 151.00 targeting 145.20-144.50-143.90 and 143.20-142.50. Long positions above 145.50-143.50 with targets of 146.00-146.40-147.10 and 148.00-148.60-149.00 with stops below 143.00.