Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies remained subdued on Tuesday as the dollar steadied after four consecutive gains, while the Indonesian rupiah tumbled to its lowest level since the 1998 Asian financial crisis, weighed down by concerns over the country’s fiscal stability and economic growth. With the strengthening dollar, and potential risks from upcoming U.S. trade tariffs, Asian currencies remained subdued. However, media reports over the weekend suggested that President Donald Trump plans to implement a more selective approach to reciprocal tariffs starting next month. Instead of broad industry-wide levies, Trump’s administration is expected to focus on countries with significant trade imbalances with the U.S. With trade-sensitive currencies already under pressure, investors are bracing for potential volatility as details of the policy emerge. The Indonesian rupiah depreciated to levels not seen since the 1998 Asian financial crisis amid concerns about the nation’s fiscal stability and economic growth. Bank Indonesia (BI) attributed this to a combination of global uncertainties and domestic challenges, Reuters reported. These include U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and the broader impact of trade disputes on China and other emerging Asian markets. Domestically, investor apprehensions have intensified due to President Prabowo Subianto’s expansive fiscal initiatives, which have led to significant budget cuts in essential sectors like education and public works. The country’s stock market has also seen continuous sharp falls this month. In response to the rupiah’s decline, Bank Indonesia has intervened in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the currency.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday its intraday high of US$3033.18/oz and low of $3002.37/oz. Gold is down by 0.335% at US$3011.79/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3030-3085 keeping stop loss closing above 3085, targeting 3012-3000-2,970 and 2960-2245-2930. Buy in between 3012-2900 with risk below 2900 targeting 3039-3050-3059 and 3069-3077-3085.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday its intraday high of US$33.28/oz and low of US$32.87/oz settle down by 01.69% at US$33.00/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 33.10-31.10, targeting 33.80-34.20-34.45 and 34.85-35.25-35.50-36.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 31.00. Sell in between 33.50-36.00 with a stop loss above 36.00 targeting 33.10-32.60 and 32.10-31.60-30.90.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday high of US$69.20/bbl, an intraday low of US$67.84/bbl, and settled up by 1.231% to close at US$69.03/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 68.90-74.85 with stop loss at 75.00; targeting 67.90-67.00-66.20 and 65.60-65.00-64.50 and 63.90-63.10. Buy above 67.90-63.05 with risk daily closing below 63.00, targeting 68.55-69.00.-69.50 and 70.00-70.66-71.20.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.0781/EUR, a high of US$1.0857/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.155% to close at US$1.0799/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0850-1.1035, targeting 1.0800-1.0725-1.0650 and 1.0600-1.0540-1.0490 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1035. Buy above 1.0810-1.0490 with risk below 1.0490 targeting 1.0935 and 1.0990-1.1035.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday low of US$1.2894/GBP, a high of US$1.2973/GBP, and settled the day up 0.135% to close at US$1.2919/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2900-1.2380 with a target of 1.2920-1.2960-1.2990 and 1.3040-1.0390-1.3140 with a stop loss closing below 1.2380. Sell in between 1.2960-1.3140 with targets at 1.2920-1.2850-1.2790-1.2753 and 1.2660-1.2590-1.2510 with a stop loss of 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday an intra‐day low of JPY149.36/USD an intraday high of 150.75/USD, and settled the day up by 0.854% at JPY150.65/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 150.90-159.50 with risk above 160.00 targeting 148.00-147.10-146.50 and 146.00-145.20-144.50. Long positions above 149.10-143.50 with targets of 148.00-148.60-149.00 and 150.00-150.60-151.10 with stops below 143.00.