Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies weakened on Friday, while the dollar firmed as traders bet on no U.S. interest rate cuts in the near-term, while fears of higher tariffs and slower growth dented risk appetite. The dollar recovered from its post-Fed losses as markets grew convinced that the central bank will keep rates higher for longer this year, even as it maintained its projections of 50 basis points of cuts in 2025. In Asia, most risk-driven currencies weakened, while the Japanese yen also retreated despite a stronger-than-expected inflation reading for February. The Chinese yuan was flat as traders sought more cues on stimulus measures. The dollar index and dollar index futures rose 0.2% each in Asian trade, extending an overnight rebound. Markets were seen pricing in fewer chances of interest rates falling in the near-term, especially as the Fed left rates unchanged this week. Jobless claims data also showed resilience in the labor market, which is one of the Fed’s considerations for rate cuts. Traders largely looked past U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for the Fed to cut interest rates. Trump on Thursday said it “would be great” if the Fed cut rates soon. The central bank signaled no such intent during its recent meeting, flagging heightened uncertainty over the economy, Trump’s tariffs, and the trajectory of inflation. The Fed also hiked its 2025 inflation forecast and trimmed its growth outlook. The Japanese yen weakened on Friday even as stronger-than-expected consumer inflation data for February kept traders focused on more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Underlying consumer price index inflation rose further past the BOJ’s 2% annual target in February, tying into the central bank’s forecast of stronger wage growth driving up personal spending and inflation this year. The BOJ is now widely expected to hike rates in May. While the yen retreated on Friday, it still retained a bulk of its gains from the past month, where a mix of safe-haven demand and hawkish BOJ comments drove up long positions in the currency. Broader Asian currencies moved in a flat-to-low range amid a dearth of immediate cues. The Chinese yuan’s USD/CNY pair rose 0.1% amid continued focus on more stimulus measures from Beijing.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday its intraday high of US$3057.41/oz and low of $3025.57/oz. Gold is down by 0.104% at US$3044.30/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3030-3085 keeping stop loss closing above 3085, targeting 3012-3000-2,970 and 2960-2245-2930. Buy in between 3012-2900 with risk below 2900 targeting 3039-3050-3059 and 3069-3077-3085.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday ts intraday high of US$33.93/oz and low of US$33.08/oz settle down by 0.598% at US$33.54/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 33.50-31.10, targeting 33.80-34.20-34.45 and 34.85-35.25-35.50-36.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 31.00. Sell in between 34.05-36.00 with a stop loss above 36.00 targeting 33.50-33.10-32.60 and 32.10-31.60-30.90.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday day high of US$68.36/bbl, an intraday low of US$66.56/bbl, and settled up by 2.015% to close at US$68.28/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 68.50-74.85 with stop loss at 75.00; targeting 67.90-67.00-66.20 and 65.60-65.00-64.50 and 63.90-63.10. Buy above 67.50-63.05 with risk daily closing below 63.00, targeting 66.00-66.55-67.00 and 67.90-68.55-69.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.0814/EUR, a high of US$1.0916/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.485% to close at US$1.0852/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0850-1.1035, targeting 1.0800-1.0725-1.0650 and 1.0600-1.0540-1.0490 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1035. Buy above 1.0810-1.0490 with risk below 1.0490 targeting 1.0935 and 1.0990-1.1035.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday low of US$1.2935/GBP, a high of US$1.3013/GBP, and settled the day down 0.276% to close at US$1.2965/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2900-1.2380 with a target of 1.2920-1.2960-1.2990 and 1.3040-1.0390-1.3140 with a stop loss closing below 1.2380. Sell in between 1.2960-1.3140 with targets at 1.2920-1.2850-1.2790-1.2753 and 1.2660-1.2590-1.2510 with a stop loss of 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday an intra‐day low of JPY148.17/USD an intraday high of 148.17/USD, and settled the day down by 0.510% at JPY148.74/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 149.90-159.50 with risk above 160.00 targeting 148.00-147.10-146.50 and 146.00-145.20-144.50. Long positions above 149.10-143.50 with targets of 148.00-148.60-149.00 and 150.00-150.60-151.10 with stops below 143.00.