Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies were little changed against a muted U.S. dollar on Monday, as investors were cautious ahead of key interest rate decisions from the U.S., Japan, and China, all due later this week. For the day, investors assessed China’s announcement of a special action plan to boost consumption, and a barrage of economic data released on Monday. The US Dollar Index was largely unchanged at 103.71 in Asian trading as of 02:52 GMT, remaining slightly above a four-month low it reached earlier this month. This week, several major economies, including the U.S., Japan, China, and Taiwan, are scheduled to announce their latest interest rate decisions. Market participants are keenly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting starting on Tuesday, where interest rates are expected to remain steady. However, the Fed’s commentary on tariffs’ impact on inflation and growth will be closely scrutinized. Additionally, the Bank of Japan’s upcoming meeting on March 18–19, is anticipated to maintain the current interest rate at 0.5%, despite rising inflationary pressures, as officials are concerned about rising trade tensions stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Taiwan’s central bank is set to hold its quarterly monetary policy meeting on Thursday. China announces plan to boost consumption, Feb industrial prod, retail sales in focus. China unveiled on Sunday a comprehensive "special action plan" to bolster domestic consumption, aiming to invigorate economic growth amid recent challenges. The plan focuses on increasing residents’ incomes, reducing financial burdens, and enhancing the consumption environment. It targets both traditional sectors like housing and automobiles, as well as emerging areas such as artificial intelligence-powered products. Meanwhile, economic indicators released on Monday reflect a mixed outlook. In January and February, industrial production grew by 5.9% year-on-year, surpassing expectations of 5.3%. Retail sales saw a 4.0% increase, up from December’s 3.7%, driven by Lunar New Year spending. However, the urban unemployment rate rose to 5.4% in February, the highest in two years, indicating ongoing labor market challenges. These developments underscore the necessity of China’s action plan to stimulate domestic demand and achieve its 2025 economic growth target of around 5%.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday its intraday high of US$3004.79/oz and low of $2978.38/oz. Gold is up by 0.126% at US$2984.60/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2,990-3031 keeping stop loss closing above 3031, targeting 2,970-2960-2245 and 2930-2918-2900. Buy in between 2970-2900 with risk below 2789 targeting 2990-3000 and 3012-3030.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday ts intraday high of US$34.06/oz and low of US$33.50/oz settle down by 0.0621% at US$33.77/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 33.50-31.10, targeting 33.80-34.20-34.45 and 34.85-35.25-35.50-36.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 31.00. Sell in between 33.80-36.00 with a stop loss above 36.00 targeting 33.50-33.10-32.60 and 32.10-31.60-30.90.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday intra‐day high of US$67.16/bbl, an intraday low of US$66.31/bbl, and settled up by 0.697% to close at US$66.87/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 67.90-74.85 with stop loss at 75.00; targeting 65.60-65.00-64.50 and 63.90-63.10. Buy above 66.50-63.05 with risk daily closing below 63.00, targeting 66.00-66.55-67.00 and 67.90-68.55-69.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.0829/EUR, a high of US$1.0912/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.248% to close at US$1.0878/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0890-1.1035, targeting 1.0800-1.0725-1.0650 and 1.0600-1.0540-1.0490 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1035. Buy above 1.0850-1.0490 with risk below 1.0490 targeting 1.0850-1.0890-1.0935 and 1.0990-1.1035.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday low of US$1.2910/GBP, a high of US$1.2915/GBP, and settled the day down 0.2679% to close at US$1.2915/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2920-1.2380 with a target of 1.2920-1.2960-1.2990 and 1.3040-1.0390-1.3140 with a stop loss closing below 1.2380. Sell in between 1.2960-1.3140 with targets at 1.2920-1.2850-1.2790-1.2753 and 1.2660-1.2590-1.2510 with a stop loss of 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday an intra‐day low of JPY147.73/USD an intraday high of 149.01/USD, and settled the day down by 0.609% at JPY148.63/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 148.60-159.50 with risk above 160.00 targeting 148.00-147.10-146.50 and 146.00-145.20-144.50. Long positions above 148.10-143.50 with targets of 148.00-148.60-149.00 and 150.00-150.60-151.10 with stops below 143.00.