Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies moved little on Wednesday, while the dollar recovered mildly from recent losses as traders positioned for key consumer price index data, which is set to provide more cues on the economy and interest rates. A rally in the Japanese yen cooled as the currency retreated from its strongest levels in five months, although bets on more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan remained in play. Risk sentiment improved slightly after U.S. President Donald Trump backed down from imposing even higher trade tariffs on Canada, as Ontario scrapped plans for tariffs on energy exports to the U.S. But Trump still kept up his threats of reciprocal tariffs, keeping markets on edge. Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum also took effect from Wednesday. The dollar index and dollar index futures both rose about 0.2% in Asian trade after tumbling to a five-month low in overnight trade. The greenback was battered by growing fears of a U.S. recession, especially after a string of weak consumer sentiment and labor market readings in recent weeks. Trump’s constant flip-flopping on tariffs also brewed increased uncertainty over the U.S. economy. The U.S. President declined to rule out the possibility of a recession during a recent interview. Focus is now squarely on key CPI data for more cues on U.S. inflation and interest rates. The print is due later on Wednesday and is expected to show inflation remained sticky in February. Markets fear that Trump’s tariff agenda will underpin inflation and keep the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates soon, with Wednesday’s reading expected to reinforce this notion. Improving risk appetite and the dollar’s recovery spurred some weakness in the Japanese yen, with the USD/JPY pair rising 0.2% from its lowest level in five months. But losses in the yen were limited by persistent bets that the BOJ will keep raising interest rates this year, especially as Japanese producer price index inflation data read sticky for February. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled on Wednesday that the BOJ was unlikely to act on a recent spike in Japanese government bond yields, where the 10-year rate crossed 1.5% and hit a 17-year high. Ueda said market expectations for long-term rates were in line with the BOJ’s expectations. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged next week, but could hike them again by as soon as May. Broader Asian currencies kept to a flat-to-low range amid caution over the economy and U.S. inflation.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Tuesday its intraday high of US$2922.12/oz and low of $2880.23/oz. Gold is up by 0.934% at US$2915.38/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2,920-2,970 keeping stop loss closing above 2970, targeting 2884- 2860-2849-2830 and 2820-2800-2788. Buy in between 2900-2789 with risk below 2789 targeting 2920-2930-2943 and 2952-2960-2970.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Tuesday its intraday high of US$32.95/oz and low of US$31.79/oz settle up by 2.686% at US$32.91/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 32.00-27.50, targeting 32.60 and 33.10-33.80-34.20 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 32.60-34.30 with a stop loss above 35.00 targeting 32.10-31.60-30.90 and 29.90-29.10-28.60.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Tuesday intra‐day Friday high of US$66.83/bbl, an intraday low of US$65.02/bbl, and settled up by 1.0605% to close at US$66.29/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 66.50-74.85 with stop loss at 75.00; targeting 65.60-65.00-64.50 and 63.90-63.10. Buy above 66.00-63.05 with risk daily closing below 63.00, targeting 66.00-66.55-67.00 and 67.90-68.55-69.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0832/EUR, a high of US$1.0946/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.0417% to close at US$1.0832/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0910-1.1035, targeting 1.0800-1.0725-1.0650 and 1.0600-1.0540-1.0490 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1035. Buy above 1.0850-1.0490 with risk below 1.0490 targeting 1.0850-1.0890-1.0935 and 1.0990-1.1035.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Tuesday low of US$1.2870/GBP, a high of US$1.2941/GBP, and settled the day up 0.494% to close at US$1.2941/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2850-1.2380 with a target of 1.2920-1.2960-1.2990 and 1.3040-1.0390-1.3140 with a stop loss closing below 1.2380. Sell in between 1.2920-1.3140 with targets at 1.2850-1.2790-1.2753 and 1.2660-1.2590-1.2510 with a stop loss of 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Tuesday an intra‐day low of JPY146.53/USD an intraday high of 148.11/USD, and settled the day up by 0.374% at JPY147.70/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 148.90-159.50 with risk above 160.00 targeting 148.00-147.10-146.50 and 146.00-145.20-144.50. Long positions above 147.10-143.50 with targets of 148.00-148.60-149.00 and 150.00-150.60-151.10 with stops below 143.00.