Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies firmed on Thursday, while the dollar wallowed at four-month lows after the U.S. offered some concessions in recent trade tariffs against Canada and Mexico. But sentiment still remained fragile as U.S. President Donald Trump made no exemptions in his 20% tariffs on China, drawing ire and retaliation from Beijing. Investors were digesting promises of more stimulus measures from China made at a high-level government meeting this week, while focus was also on key upcoming U.S. labor data. The Chinese yuan firmed slightly, while the Japanese yen steadied after logging strong gains on safe haven demand. Risk-exposed Asian currencies such as the Australian dollar and South Korean won strengthened. The dollar index and dollar index futures steadied in Asian trade after sinking to early-November lows on Wednesday. Losses in the dollar came after Trump made a one-month exemption for U.S. automakers from recent tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Reports showed Trump was also considering exempting agricultural goods. The move drove some bets that Trump’s tariff agenda will not be as disruptive as initially feared, helping boost risk appetite and drawing more traders away from the dollar. The greenback was also pressured by strength in the euro, after Germany outlined plans for a massive fiscal overhaul to stimulate local growth and production. Markets were now awaiting more cues on U.S. interest rates, with key nonfarm payrolls data for February due on Friday. Any signs of persistent strength in the labor market give the Federal Reserve more headroom to keep interest rates higher for longer, which is positive for the dollar. The Chinese yuan firmed slightly on Thursday, with the USD/CNY pair falling 0.1% after a substantially stronger-than-expected midpoint fix from the People’s Bank. Sentiment towards China was also lifted by Beijing flagging plans for higher fiscal spending this year, aimed chiefly at shoring up weak consumption and supporting economic growth. But China offered few details on what the planned measures will entail, keeping markets uncertain over the country’s outlook. A brewing trade war with the U.S. is also expected to weigh on the Chinese economy this year. The South Korean won’s USD/KRW pair fell 0.4% after consumer price index inflation read slightly above expectations for February, although it still eased from the prior month.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday its intraday high of US$2929.90/oz and low of $2894.21/oz. Gold is up by 0.0339% at US$2918.55/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2,920-2,970 keeping stop loss closing above 2970, targeting 2900-2860-2849-2830 and 2820-2800-2788. Buy in between 2900-2789 with risk below 2789 targeting 2870-2884-2900 and 2920-2930-2943.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday its intraday high of US$31.82/oz and low of US$31.09/oz settle down by 1.763% at US$31.13/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 32.10-27.50, targeting 32.60 and 33.10-33.80-34.20 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 32.60-34.30 with a stop loss above 35.00 targeting 32.10-31.60-30.90 and 29.90-29.10-28.60.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Wednesday intra‐day high of US$67.81/bbl, an intraday low of US$64.98/bbl, and settled down by % to close at US$66.11/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 67.00-77.85 with stop loss at 84.00; targeting 66.40-66.00-65.60 and 65.00-64.50. Buy above 66.00-64.05 with risk daily closing below 64.00, targeting 67.00-67.90-68.55 and 69.00-70.20-70.60-71.10.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0601/EUR, a high of US$1.0795/EUR, and settled the day up by 1.488% to close at US$1.0782/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0840-1.1035, targeting 1.0800-1.0725-1.0650 and 1.0600-1.0540-1.0490 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1035. Buy above 1.0800-1.0490 with risk below 1.0490 targeting 1.0850-1.0890-1.0935 and 1.0990-1.1035.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday low of US$1.2766/GBP, a high of US$1.2899/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.829% to close at US$1.2819/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2850-1.2380 with a target of 1.2920-1.2960-1.2990 and 1.3040-1.0390-1.3140 with a stop loss closing below 1.2380. Sell in between 1.2920-1.3140 with targets at 1.2850-1.2790-1.2753 and 1.2660-1.2590-1.2510 with a stop loss of 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday an intra‐day low of JPY148.38/USD an intraday high of 150.17/USD, and settled the day down by 0.480% at JPY148.85/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 149.90-159.50 with risk above 160.00 targeting 149.00-148.60-148.00 and 147.10-146.50. Long positions above 148.50-146.50 with targets of 150.60-151.10 and 152.10-154.30-155.25 with stops below 146.00.