Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies moved in a flat-to-low range on Tuesday, while the dollar steadied from recent losses as traders hunkered down before the imposition of increased trade tariffs under U.S. President Donald Trump. The Chinese yuan clocked mild losses, with further declines stymied by government support as Trump said he will impose 20% tariffs against the country from later on Tuesday. The Japanese yen was an outlier among its regional peers, strengthening amid increased safe haven demand. Risk appetite was also soured by reports that the White House had paused all military aid to Ukraine- a move that could mark a worsening in the long-running Russia-Ukraine war. The dollar index and dollar index futures moved little in Asian trade on Tuesday after clocking overnight losses. Trump said he will impose 20% tariffs on China and 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, starting from 00:00 ET (05:00 GMT) on Tuesday. China was seen considering more retaliatory measures, while Canada and Mexico decried the move. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso both touched their weakest levels in one month on Tuesday. Trump’s tariffs- which are aimed at furthering U.S. trade and geopolitical interests- stand to benefit the dollar. They are also expected to potentially increase U.S. inflation, given that they will be borne by U.S. importers. But the dollar took little support from this notion, as recent data showed a deterioration in U.S. consumer confidence, sparking concerns over an economic slowdown. Increased speculation over a massive U.S. overhaul in trade policy, akin to the 1985 Plaza Accord- also weighed on the dollar, given that such an overhaul is likely to target dollar weakness to boost U.S. trade. China was seen exploring a host of retaliatory trade measures against the U.S. over the increased tariffs, including moves targeting agricultural goods. Beijing had in February imposed retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., as well as export controls on key materials, such as rare earths. Gains in the yen were stymied by softer-than-expected capital spending data, while other readings showed an unexpected increase in Japan’s unemployment rate. Among broader Asian currencies, the Australian dollar’s AUD/USD pair slid 0.3%, given that the currency is highly sensitive to trade. Losses in the Aussie came even as the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February meeting showed policymakers non-commitment towards more rate cuts, after a 25 basis point reduction in February. Other data showed Australian consumer spending remained strong, with retail sales growing more than expected in January.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday its intraday high of US$2895.11/oz and low of $2855.47/oz. Gold is up by 0.575% at US$2893.09/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2,870-2,970 keeping stop loss closing above 2970, targeting 2860-2849-2830 and 2820-2800-2788. Buy in between 2860-2789 with risk below 2789 targeting 2870-2884-2900 and 2920-2930-2943.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday its intraday high of US$31.82/oz and low of US$31.09/oz settle down by 1.763% at US$31.13/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 31.00-27.50, targeting 32.50 and 33.10-33.80-34.20 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 31.60-34.30 with a stop loss above 35.00 targeting 30.90 and 29.90-29.10-28.60.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday intra‐day high of US$70.36/bbl, an intraday low of US$67.71/bbl, and settled down by 2.07% to close at US$69.71/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 67.90-77.85 with stop loss at 84.00; targeting 69.00-68.55-67.90 and 66.80-66.00. Buy above 67.00-64.05 with risk daily closing below 64.00, targeting 70.20-70.60-71.10 and 72.20-72.90-74.05.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0387/EUR, a high of US$1.0503/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.775% to close at US$1.0482/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0490-1.0840, targeting 1.0340 and 1.0290-1.0210 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400. Buy above 1.0410-1.0110 with risk below 1.0110 targeting 1.0460 and 1.0490-1.0540-1.0600.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday low of US$1.2572/GBP, a high of US$1.2723/GBP, and settled the day up by % to close at US$1.2698/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2590-1.2100 with a target of 1.2650-1.2750 and 1.2790-1.2850-1.2900 with a stop loss closing below 1.2040. Sell in between 1.2670-1.2960 with targets at 1.2590-1.2510-1.2450 and 1.2380-1.2310-1.2210 with a stop loss of 1.3000.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday an intra‐day low of JPY149.08/USD an intraday high of 151.2969/USD, and settled the day up by 0.761% at JPY149.48/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 150.90-159.50 with risk above 160.00 targeting 149.00-148.60-148.00 and 147.10-146.50. Long positions above 150.00-146.50 with targets of 150.60-151.10 and 152.10-154.30-155.25 with stops below 146.00.