Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies extended declines on Friday, as U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed his tariff timings, while the Japanese yen edged up after a strong inflation report from Tokyo. The US Dollar Index rose 0.1% in Asian trading, as market participants cautiously awaited the release of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, due later in the day, to gauge the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory. Trump on Thursday reaffirmed that, effective March 4, the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, alongside an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, citing ongoing concerns over illicit drug inflows, particularly fentanyl. Asian currencies fell as investors were concerned that escalating trade tensions could hinder economic growth in export-reliant Asian economies, prompting a shift towards the perceived safety of the U.S. dollar Japanese yen rises as Tokyo CPI keeps BOJ rate-hike bets supported. Japanese yen’s USD/JPY pair edged down 0.2%, Tokyo’s core inflation rose 2.2% year-on-year in February, slowing from the 2.5% increase seen in January, according to data released on Friday. Despite the slight decline, inflation remained above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the fourth consecutive month, backing the Bank of Japan’s view of more rate hikes. Meanwhile, Japan’s industrial production fell 1.1% in January from the previous month, aligning with market expectations At the same time, retail sales grew 3.9% year-on-year in January, matching estimates and highlighting steady consumer spending. Market participants await the upcoming release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data on Friday, seeking insights into the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate decisions. This anticipation follows last week’s weaker-than-expected services PMI and consumer sentiment figures, which have bolstered expectations for potential rate cuts. However, immediate rate reductions remain unlikely, as the Federal Reserve continues to assess the broader economic landscape. citeturn0searc. The data will also help gauge the future performance of the U.S. dollar, which has recently fallen on data showing weak economic growth.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday its intraday high of US$2920.67/oz and low of $2867.71/oz. Gold is down by 1.35% at US$2876.74/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2,870-2,970 keeping stop loss closing above 2970, targeting 2860-2849-2830 and 2820-2800-2788. Buy in between 2860-2789 with risk below 2789 targeting 2870-2884-2900 and 2920-2930-2943.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday its intraday high of US$31.92/oz and low of US$3162/oz settle down by 1.856% at US$31.23/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 31.00-27.50, targeting 32.50 and 33.10-33.80-34.20 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 31.60-34.30 with a stop loss above 35.00 targeting 30.90 and 29.90-29.10-28.60.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday intra‐day high of US$72.23/bbl, an intraday low of US$68.58/bbl, and settled down by 1.901% to close at US$71.05/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 70.00-77.85 with stop loss at 84.00; targeting 69.00-68.55-67.90 and 66.80-66.00. Buy above 68.90-64.05 with risk daily closing below 64.00, targeting 70.20-70.60-71.10 and 72.20-72.90-74.05.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0395/EUR, a high of US$1.0491/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.757% to close at US$1.0397/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0490-1.0840, targeting 1.0340 and 1.0290-1.0210 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400. Buy above 1.0410-1.0110 with risk below 1.0110 targeting 1.0460 and 1.0490-1.0540-1.0600.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday low of US$1.2596/GBP, a high of US$1.2676/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.578% to close at US$1.2597/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2590-1.2100 with a target of 1.2650-1.2750 and 1.2790-1.2850-1.2900 with a stop loss closing below 1.2040. Sell in between 1.2670-1.2960 with targets at 1.2590-1.2510-1.2450 and 1.2380-1.2310-1.2210 with a stop loss of 1.3000.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday an intra‐day low of JPY148.73/USD an intraday high of 150.17/USD, and settled the day up by 0.625% at JPY149.78/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 150.00-159.50 with risk above 160.00 targeting 149.00-148.60-148.00 and 147.10-146.50. Long positions above 149.00-146.50 with targets of 150.00-150.60-151.10 and 152.10-154.30-155.25 with stops below 146.00.