Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies strengthened on Monday led by a jump in the South Korean won as the U.S. dollar retreated following weaker-than-expected economic data, while attention turned to the Bank of Korea’s interest rate decision later this week. Most Asian currencies saw gains on Monday, buoyed by a weakening U.S. dollar after a survey revealed that U.S. business activity nearly stalled in February, reaching a 17-month low, amid mounting concerns over import tariffs and significant federal spending cuts. Additionally, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was sharply revised downward to 64.7 in February from a preliminary 67.8, marking the lowest level in 15 months. Regional currencies have been under considerable pressure due to the Trump administration's tariff threats and the anticipation of prolonged elevated U.S. interest rates driven by persistent inflation. However, the recent softening in U.S. economic data has led to a decline in the dollar's value, offering a respite to Asian currencies.The South Korean won's USD/KRW pair climbed the most among regional currencies against the U.S. dollar, with the USD/KRW pair dropping 0.6% The Bank of Korea (BoK) is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday amid a backdrop of economic challenges and political instability. Analysts widely anticipate a 25 basis point reduction, lowering the policy rate from 3.00% to 2.75%, to stimulate the sluggish economy. South Korea's economic growth has been tepid, with the fourth quarter of 2024 recording a mere 0.1% expansion from the previous quarter. The nation's political landscape has been turbulent following the impeachment and arrest of President Yoon Suk-Yeol in December 2024. This upheaval has eroded consumer and business confidence, further dampening economic prospects. In January 2025, the BoK unexpectedly maintained the interest rate at 3.00%, aiming to support the won, which had been weakening partly due to political uncertainties.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday its intraday high of US$2949.64/oz and low of $2916.54/oz. Gold is down by 0.0813% at US$2935.86/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2,940-2,970 keeping stop loss closing above 2970, targeting 2900-2884-2870 and 2862-2849-2830. Buy in between 2920-2789 with risk below 2789 targeting 2920-2930-2943 and 2950-2960-2970.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday its intraday high of US$33.05/oz and low of US$32.43/oz settle down by 1.341% at US$32.43/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 32.50-27.50, targeting 32.50 and 33.10-33.80-34.20 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 33.10-34.30 with a stop loss above 35.00 targeting 32.10-31.30-30.90 and 29.90-29.10-28.60.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday intra‐day high of US$72.69/bbl, an intraday low of US$70.11/bbl, and settled down by 3.13% to close at US$70.17/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 72.90-83.85 with stop loss at 84.00; targeting 72.20-71.70-71.00 and 70.39-69.50. Buy above 71.90-64.05 with risk daily closing below 64.00, targeting 72.20-72.90-74.05-75.70 and 76.50-77.10-77.80.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0448/EUR, a high of US$1.0504/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.324% to close at US$1.0465/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0490-1.0840, targeting 1.0340 and 1.0290-1.0210 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400. Buy above 1.0410-1.0110 with risk below 1.0110 targeting 1.0460 and 1.0490-1.0540-1.0600.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday low of US$1.2624/GBP, a high of US$1.2672/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.284% to close at US$1.2630/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2590-1.2100 with a target of 1.2650-1.2750 and 1.2790-1.2850-1.2900 with a stop loss closing below 1.2040. Sell in between 1.2670-1.2960 with targets at 1.2590-1.2510-1.2450 and 1.2380-1.2310-1.2210 with a stop loss of 1.3000.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday an intra‐day low of JPY148.91/USD an intraday high of 152.88/USD, and settled the day down by 0.209% at JPY151.30/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 151.00-159.50 with risk above 160.00 targeting 151.50-150.90 and 150.20-149.00 Long positions above 150.00-149.00 with targets of 150.60-151.10-152.10 and 154.30-155.25-156.00-156.50 with stops below 149.00.