Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies weakened on Monday amid concerns over fresh U.S. tariffs under Donald Trump’s administration, while the Japanese yen strengthened with data showing faster-than-expected economic growth in the fourth quarter. Japan's economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024, significantly surpassing market expectations of a 1.0% increase, according to the gross domestic product (GDP) data released on Monday. This growth was driven by robust exports and moderate private consumption. On a quarterly basis, the economy grew by 0.7%, exceeding the anticipated 0.3% rise Other regional currencies were under pressure in anticipation of fresh U.S. tariffs. Emerging Asian economies, which have seen their export shares to the U.S. rise in recent years, are particularly vulnerable to an escalating trade war. The interconnectedness of these economies with both the U.S. and China means that increased tariffs could disrupt trade flows, leading to depreciation in regional currencies. The Chinese yuan’s onshore pair USD/CNY was largely unchanged, while the offshore pair USD/CNH inched 0.1% lower. The Indonesian rupiah’s USD/IDR pair rose 0.3%, while the Indian rupee’s USD/INR pair was muted. The dollar had come under pressure last week, declining more than 1%, as investors weighed the economic impact of the gradual imposition of tariffs, and assessed crucial inflation data.The US Dollar Index was largely muted during Asian trading, while the Dollar Index Futures inched marginally higher. January inflation data came in higher than expected, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising 3% annually, while the producer price index (PPI) also increased. However, certain components of both CPI and PPI that factor into the Fed’s preferred personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index showed some moderation. This slight cooling has fueled hopes that inflation may be trending downward, potentially allowing the Fed to ease policy later in the year.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday its intraday high of US$2939.94/oz and low of $2876.93/oz. Gold is down by 1.53% at US$2882.36/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2,920-2,970 keeping stop loss closing above 2970, targeting 2900-2884-2870 and 2862-2849-2830. Buy in between 2900-2789 with risk below 2789 targeting 2920-2930-2943 and 2950-2960-2970.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday its intraday high of US$33.37/oz and low of US$32.05/oz settle up by 0.542% at US$32.10/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 32.10-27.50, targeting 32.50 and 33.10-33.80-34.20 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 32.50-34.30 with a stop loss above 35.00 targeting 32.10-31.30-30.90 and 29.90-29.10-28.60.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday intra‐day high of US$71.86/bbl, an intraday low of US$70.48/bbl, and settled down by 1.139% to close at US$70.50/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 72.90-83.85 with stop loss at 84.00; targeting 72.20-71.70-71.00 and 70.39-69.50. Buy above 72.20-64.05 with risk daily closing below 64.00, targeting 73.00-74.05-75.70 and 76.50-77.10-77.80.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0446/EUR, a high of US$1.0513/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.279% to close at US$1.0490/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0390-1.0840, targeting 1.0340 and 1.0290-1.0210 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400. Buy above 1.0300-1.0110 with risk below 1.0110 targeting 1.0400 and 1.0490-1.0540-1.0600.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday low of US$1.2387/GBP, a high of US$1.2629/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.019% to close at US$1.2563/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2510-1.2100 with a target of 1.2590-1.2650-1.2750 with a stop loss closing below 1.2040. Sell in between 1.2380-1.2960 with targets at 1.2310 and 1.2210-1.2150-1.2070 with a stop loss of 1.3000.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday an intra‐day low of JPY152.01/USD an intraday high of 153.14/USD, and settled the day down by 0.282% at JPY152.32/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 152.00-159.50 with risk above 160.00 targeting 153.50-153.00-152.10 and 151.50-150.90 Long positions above 151.00-149.00 with targets of 154.30-155.25 and 156.00-156.50-157.20 with stops below 149.00.