Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies moved in a flat-to-low range on Friday as traders digested some relief over U.S. trade tariffs, although strong U.S. inflation data kept most regional units under pressure. The U.S. dollar was set for a weekly loss as it largely fell past strong inflation readings for January, after President Donald Trump signaled that he will not immediately impose reciprocal tariffs on U.S. trading partners as initially feared. But sentiment towards Asian markets still remained skittish after Trump imposed steep tariffs on steel and aluminum imports this week- duties that stand to affect several Asian economies. The dollar had initially firmed on the commodity tariffs. But the greenback reversed course after Trump signaled reciprocal tariffs were still weeks, if not months away. The dollar index and dollar index futures moved little in Asian trade on Friday after clocking steep losses over the past two days. They were also set to lose about 0.9% this week. Losses in the dollar came as Trump signed an executive order to explore reciprocal tariffs on major U.S. trading partners. But the tariffs are only expected to be imposed by April, giving countries more time at the negotiating table with Trump. The dollar was also dented by mixed inflation cues. While both producer price index and consumer price index inflation readings read higher for January, certain components of the two- which are used to gauge PCE price index inflation- softened slightly. The trend spurred hopes that PCE inflation- which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge- will ease in the coming months, giving the central bank some headroom to consider cutting interest rates further. Treasury yields also sank on this notion. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled this week that uncertainty over sticky inflation and inflationary policies under Trump will see the bank maintain a cautious stance towards further easing. But Asian currencies took little relief from the delayed tariffs, as sentiment towards the region was dented by fears of an escalating U.S.-China trade war. Trump had last week imposed a 10% duty on all Chinese imports. The yuan moved little on Friday, although the USDCNY pair did fall from the 7.3 yuan level. The Japanese yen steadied, with the USDJPY pair having fallen sharply over the past two days, amid persistent bets on more rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. But sentiment towards India was mixed following a meeting between Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. While the two did flag increased trade, economic and defense-related cooperation between Washington and Delhi, Trump still chided India’s steep import duties, which could invite reciprocal trade tariffs against the country.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday its intraday high of US$2929.21/oz and low of $2900.34/oz. Gold is up by 0.842% at US$2928.30/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2,920-2,970 keeping stop loss closing above 2970, targeting 2900-2884-2870 and 2862-2849-2830. Buy in between 2900-2789 with risk below 2789 targeting 2920-2930-2943 and 2950-2960-2970.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday its intraday high of US$32.40/oz and low of US$31.97/oz settle up by 0.3229% at US$32.31/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 32.30-27.50, targeting 32.50 and 33.10-33.80-34.20 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 32.50-34.30 with a stop loss above 35.00 targeting 32.10-31.30-30.90 and 29.90-29.10-28.60.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday intra‐day high of US$71.41/bbl, an intraday low of US$70.13/bbl, and settled up by 0.372% to close at US$71.35/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 72.90-83.85 with stop loss at 84.00; targeting 72.20-71.70-71.00 and 70.39-69.50. Buy above 72.20-64.05 with risk daily closing below 64.00, targeting 73.00-74.05-75.70 and 76.50-77.10-77.80.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0371/EUR, a high of US$1.0465/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.777% to close at US$1.0416/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0390-1.0840, targeting 1.0340 and 1.0290-1.0210 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400. Buy above 1.0300-1.0110 with risk below 1.0110 targeting 1.0400 and 1.0490-1.0540-1.0600.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday low of US$1.2331/GBP, a high of US$1.2566/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.650% to close at US$1.2563/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2510-1.2100 with a target of 1.2590-1.2650-1.2750 with a stop loss closing below 1.2040. Sell in between 1.2380-1.2960 with targets at 1.2310 and 1.2210-1.2150-1.2070 with a stop loss of 1.3000.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday an intra‐day low of JPY152.68/USD an intraday high of 154.66/USD, and settled the day down by 0.983% at JPY152.78/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 153.00-159.50 with risk above 160.00 targeting 153.50-153.00-152.10 and 151.50-150.90 Long positions above 153.00-149.00 with targets of 154.30-155.25 and 156.00-156.50-157.20 with stops below 149.00.