Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies weakened on Thursday, while the dollar steadied as traders remained on edge over a brewing trade war between the U.S. and China after Washington imposed new trade tariffs on Beijing. The Japanese yen was an outlier, extending its recent rally and hitting a near two-month high as a Bank of Japan policymaker talked up the prospect of higher interest rates. Regional currencies took limited relief from overnight weakness in the dollar, as the greenback remained relatively well-bid ahead of key payrolls data this week. The dollar index and dollar index futures both rose 0.1% in Asian trade, with focus turning squarely to nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday. Any signs of resilience in the labor market are likely to support the dollar. The Chinese yuan remained under pressure, with the onshore pair having risen sharply on Wednesday as local markets reopened from the Lunar New Year holiday. The USD/CNY pair rose 0.2% on Thursday. Sentiment towards China was battered by U.S. President Donald Trump imposing 10% trade tariffs on the country. China retaliated with its own tariffs and export controls, potentially heralding the start of a renewed trade war between the world’s biggest economies. JPMorgan analysts warned that the U.S.-China trade war was likely to escalate further, and that their baseline expectations were that Trump will follow through with his 60% tariffs against China. This notion pressured Asian currencies, especially those with high trade exposure. The Australian dollar’s AUD/USD pair fell 0.2% as data showed a bigger-than-expected decline in Australia’s trade balance in December. The country’s exports to China could face renewed headwinds, especially as Beijing faces increased economic pressure from a trade war. The Indian rupee’s USD/INR pair hit a record high of 87.530 rupees, facing sustained pressure before a Reserve Bank of India (NSE:BOI) meeting on Friday, where the central bank could potentially cut interest rates amid cooling economic growth. New RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra is expected to pivot away from the central bank’s policy of using its foreign exchange reserves to stem rupee losses, presenting more weakness in the rupee The yen was buoyed by comments from BOJ board member Naoki Tamura, who warned that steady growth in wages and inflation could see the bank hike rates to 1% in the second half of 2025. Tamura’s comments sparked an extended rally in the yen, after stronger-than-expected wage data for December supported the currency earlier this week. The yen has remained underpinned by increased safe haven demand amid heightened global trade jitters. A 25 basis point hike by the BOJ also boosted the currency since late-January.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday its intraday high of US$2882.23/oz and low of $2807.10/oz. Gold is up by 0.90% at US$2867.14/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2,862-2,920 keeping stop loss closing above 2920, targeting 2849-2738-2726-2694. Buy in between 2840-2749 with risk below 2749 targeting 2862-2870-2880 and 2900-2920.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday its intraday high of US$32.52/oz and low of US$31.92/oz settle up by 0.626% at US$32.29/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 32.10-27.50, targeting 32.50 and 33.10-33.80-34.20 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 32.90-34.30 with a stop loss above 35.00 targeting 32.00-31.30-30.90 and 29.90-29.10-28.60.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Wednesday intra‐day high of US$72.65/bbl, an intraday low of US$70.76/bbl, and settled down by 2.06% to close at US$70.92/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 72.90-83.85 with stop loss at 84.00; targeting 72.20-71.70-71.00 and 70.39-69.50. Buy above 72.00-64.05 with risk daily closing below 64.00, targeting 74.05-75.70-76.50 and 77.10-77.80-78.85..

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0368/EUR, a high of US$1.0441/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.231% to close at US$1.0401/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0390-1.0840, targeting 1.0340 and 1.0290-1.0210 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400. Buy above 1.0320-1.0110 with risk below 1.0110 targeting 1.0400 and 1.0490-1.0540-1.0600.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday low of US$1.2462/GBP, a high of US$1.2549/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.227% to close at US$1.2504/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2440-1.2040 with a target of 1.2510-1.2590-1.2650-1.2750 with a stop loss closing below 1.2040. Sell in between 1.2510-1.2960 with targets at 1.2440-1.2380-1.2310 and 1.2210-1.2150-1.2070 with a stop loss of 1.3000.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday an intra‐day low of JPY152.10/USD an intraday high of 154.45/USD, and settled the day down by 1.115% at JPY152.58/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 153.00-159.50 with risk above 160.00 targeting 156.00-155.25-154.30 and 153.80-153.00-152.10. Long positions above 152.50-149.00 with targets of 153.00-154.30-155.25 and 156.00-156.50-157.20 with stops below 149.00.