Daily Markets

• The dollar rose on Monday, driving its peers to multi-year lows, after Friday's blowout U.S. jobs report underscored economic strength and fueled growing doubts about the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.26% to 109.94. Earlier in the session it surged to its highest in more than two years, peaking at 110.17 and extending the recent rally. U.S. jobs growth unexpectedly accelerated in December and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, leaving traders heavily scaling back bets of rate cuts this year. Markets are pricing in a 25 basis point cut from the Fed for December, after not fully pricing one in for 2025. With Wednesday's U.S. inflation report up next, any upside surprise could further close the door on future easing. A slew of Fed officials are also due to speak this week. President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House on Monday. His plans for hefty import tariffs, tax cuts and immigration restrictions could stoke inflation, adding to expectations of a less aggressive easing cycle. The euro, down 0.4% at $1.0208, earlier in the session hit its weakest level against the dollar since November 2022. Sterling was last down 0.24% at $1.2167, after sliding to a 14-month low earlier in the day. The pound has been under pressure from concerns over rising borrowing costs and growing unease over Britain's finances. It tumbled 1.8% last week. Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York, said the general bullishness toward the dollar stems from diverging central bank policies and the threat of tariffs. After sinking to its weakest since April 2020, the Australian dollar was up 0.13% at 0.615. The New Zealand dollar edged up 0.07% to $0.5559, staying near a more than two-year low. The yuan bucked the global trend and rose slightly on Monday after Beijing stepped up efforts to defend the weakening currency by relaxing rules to allow more offshore borrowing and sending verbal warnings. On Friday, the People's Bank of China suspended treasury bond purchases, which briefly lifted yields and spurred speculation it is stepping up defence of the yuan. The Chinese currency has come under renewed pressure in part due to investors' disappointment over the lack of further stimulus from Beijing to shore up its struggling economy.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday its intraday high of US$2693.17/oz and low of $2663.89/oz. Gold is down by 1.023% at US$2662.77/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2684-2725 keeping stop loss closing above 2725, targeting 2649-2635-2624 and 2600-2585-2574-2560. Buy in between 2670-2550 with risk below 2550 targeting 2684-2694-2705 and 2726-2749.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$30.49/oz and low of US$29.48/oz settle down by 2.686% at US$29.59/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 29.10-27.50, targeting 30.40-30.70-31.30 and 32.10-32.60 and 33.10-33.80-34.20 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 29.90-34.30 with a stop loss above 35.00 targeting 29.10-28.60 and 28.10-27.60.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday an intra‐day high of US$77.78/bbl, an intraday low of US$75.87/bbl, and settled up by 1.816% to close at US$77.31/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 73.90-76.85 with stop loss at 77.00; targeting 72.45-71.50-70.10 and 69.40-68.50-67.50-66.90. Buy above 73.50-64.05 with risk daily closing below 64.00, targeting 70.90 and 71.65-73.00-73.90.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0177/EUR, a high of US$1.02492/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.453% to close at US$1.0243/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0290-1.0840, targeting 1.0450-1.0400-1.0340 and 1.0290-1.0210 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400. Buy above 1.0210-1.0110 with risk below 1.0110 targeting 1.0290-1.0350 1.0400 and 1.0490-1.0540-1.0600.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday day low of US$1.2098/GBP, a high of US$1.2208/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.0680% to close at US$1.2198/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2250-1.2180 with a target of 1.2340-1.2390-1.2440 and 1.2510-1.2590-1.2650-1.2750 with a stop loss closing below 1.2380. Sell in between 1.2310-1.2960 with targets at 1.2250 and 1.2210-1.2150-1.2070 with a stop loss of 1.3000.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY156.90/USD an intraday high of 157.96/USD, and settled the day down by 0.122% at JPY157.44/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 158.00-159.50 with risk above 160.00 targeting 156.00-155.25-154.30 and 153.80-153.00-152.10. Long positions above 157.00-149.00 with targets of 158.50-159.20-160.00 with stops below 147.00.