Daily Markets

• The dollar strengthened on Tuesday as U.S. economic data showing a generally stable jobs market and a still robust services sector suggested that the Federal Reserve will likely slow the pace of its current rate-cutting cycle. The greenback rose to a near six-month peak against the yen after the U.S. data. It was last up 0.2% at 157.875 yen. Earlier in the global session, the dollar hit its highest since July of 158.425 yen. Data showed that U.S. job openings unexpectedly increased in November, although hiring slowed during the month. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, rose 259,000 to 8.098 million by the last day of November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report. Hires, however, dropped 125,000 to 5.269 million in November. U.S. services sector activity also accelerated in December, while a surge in a measure of prices paid for inputs to a near two-year high pointed to elevated inflation. The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) increased to 54.1 last month from 52.1 in November. Following the data, the U.S. rate futures market has priced in a 95% chance of a pause in rate cuts this month, and a 4.8% probability of easing, according to LSEG estimates. Rate futures have also implied just 37 basis points of cuts in 2025, compared with two cuts expected under the Fed's "dot plot" or rate forecasts. Investors are also assessing whether President-elect Donald Trump's actual policies on tariffs will be consistent with his hard-line rhetoric. Market participants have been pricing in a scenario where the implementation of widespread tariffs could boost U.S. inflation, potentially limiting the Fed's ability to cut interest rates and thereby supporting the dollar. But they wondered whether officials are preparing to water down some of Trump's campaign promises. Trump on Monday denied a Washington Post report that said his aides were exploring tariff plans that would only cover critical imports. Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist, at Corpay in Toronto thinks, however, that the market is betting Trump "will ultimately implement a narrower set of tariffs on major trading partners, and is downgrading U.S. inflation and rate expectations in line with that." The euro, on the other hand, fell 0.4% to $1.0352, extending its fall after the economic numbers. The currency earlier rose after Tuesday's Eurostat data showed inflation in the 20 nations sharing the euro rose to 2.4% last month from 2.2% in November. Meanwhile, euro zone households increased their inflation expectations in November, an ECB poll showed. Inflation in the 20 euro zone nations picked up to 2.4% last month from 2.2% in November, Eurostat said on Tuesday. Investors are also looking to ahead to Friday's U.S. nonfarm payolls report. A Reuters poll showed a consensus forecast of 160,000 in December, down from 227,000 new jobs created in November.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Tuesday its intraday high of US$2664.25/oz and low of $2632.78/oz. Gold is down by 0.473% at US$2648.35/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2654-2716 keeping stop loss closing above 2716, targeting 2600-2585 and 2574-2560-2540-2519. Buy in between 2635-2550 with risk below 2550 targeting 2650-2669 and 2684-2694-2705

Silver - XAG

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$30.36/oz and low of US$29.86/oz settle up by 0.372% at US$30.02/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 29.10-27.50, targeting 30.40-30.70-31.30 and 32.10-32.60 and 33.10-33.80-34.20 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 29.90-34.30 with a stop loss above 35.00 targeting 29.10-28.60 and 28.10-27.60.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday an intra‐day high of US$72.90/bbl, an intraday low of US$72.66/bbl, and settled up by 1.348% to close at US$73.90/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 74.50-76.85 with stop loss at 77.00; targeting 72.45-71.50-70.10 and 69.40-68.50-67.50-66.90. Buy above 72.90-64.05 with risk daily closing below 64.00, targeting 70.90 and 71.65-73.00-73.90.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0338/EUR, a high of US$1.0433/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.471% to close at US$1.0339/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0350-1.0840, targeting 1.0450-1.0400-1.0340 and 1.0290-1.0210 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400. Buy above 1.0390-1.0210 with risk below 1.0210 targeting 1.0490-1.0540-1.0600 and 1.0660-1.0700-1.0790.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Tuesday day low of US$1.2475/GBP, a high of US$1.2575/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.296% to close at US$1.2475/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2440-1.2380 with a target of 1.2510-1.2590-1.2650-1.2750 and 1.2800.1.2890-1.2930 with a stop loss closing below 1.2380. Sell in between 1.2510-1.2960 with targets at 1.2440-1.2380-1.2290 and 1.2210-1.2150 with a stop loss of 1.3200.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of JPY157.36/USD an intraday high of 158.41/USD, and settled the day up by 0.393% at JPY158.00/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 157.90-159.50 with risk above 159.00 targeting 156.00-155.25-154.30 and 153.80-153.00-152.10. Long positions above 157.00-149.00 with targets of 157.00-157.90 and 158.50-159.20-160.00 with stops below 147.00.