Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies moved in a flat-to-low range on Thursday as the prospect of slower U.S. interest rate cuts in 2025 kept traders averse to regional markets. The Chinese yuan was among the worst performers for the day as purchasing managers index data showed support from stimulus measures rolled out in recent months was now petering out. Regional trading volumes were still limited, as major markets such as Japan remained closed for the New Year holidays. The dollar remained upbeat, benefiting from expectations of a slower pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, while protectionist policies under incoming President Donald Trump are also expected to favor the greenback. The dollar index and dollar index futures moved little in Asian trade, but were at their highest levels since November 2022. Caixin PMI data showed that the country’s manufacturing sector grew less than expected in December as support from recent stimulus measures ran dry. The reading came just days after government PMI data also showed weaker-than-expected growth in the manufacturing sector. The prints ramped up concerns over a slowing economic recovery in China, with recent stimulus measures having provided only limited support. Increased trade headwinds under Trump are also expected to pressure the Chinese economy, although Beijing is expected to dole out more fiscal stimulus to offset this trend. Most Asian currencies steadied on Thursday after mostly logging losses through 2024. A bulk of these losses also came in recent months, as the prospect of slower rate cuts and more protectionist U.S. policies saw traders largely favor the greenback. The Japanese yen was among the worst hit by this trade, as a mostly dovish outlook for 2025 from the Bank of Japan added to pressure on the currency. The yen’s USD/JPY pair moved little on Thursday after surging to a five-month high of nearly 158 yen in recent sessions. But GDP growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter, raising doubts over the island state’s economic outlook in the coming quarters.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday its intraday high of US$2627.49/oz and low of $2602.46/oz. Gold is up by 0.705% at US$2624.70/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2634-2716 keeping stop loss closing above 2716, targeting 2600-2585 and 2574-2560-2540-2519. Buy in between 2600-2550 with risk below 2550 targeting 2624-2650-2669 and 2684-2694-2705.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$29.01/oz and low of US$28.75/oz settle down by 0.463% at US$28.79/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 29.10-27.50, targeting 30.40-30.70-31.30 and 32.10-32.60 and 33.10-33.80-34.20 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 29.90-34.30 with a stop loss above 35.00 targeting 29.10-28.60 and 28.10-27.60.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Wednesday an intra‐day high of US$71.73/bbl, an intraday low of US$70.61/bbl, and settled up by 0.977% to close at US$71.57/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 71.90-76.85 with stop loss at 77.00; targeting 70.10-69.40-68.50-67.50 and 66.90-66.10-65.05. Buy above 70.90-64.05 with risk daily closing below 64.00, targeting 70.90 and 71.65-73.00-73.90.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0343/EUR, a high of US$1.0423/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.521% to close at US$1.0352/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0390-1.0840, targeting 1.0450-1.0400-1.0340 and 1.0290-1.0210 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400. Buy above 1.0420-1.0210 with risk below 1.0210 targeting 1.0490-1.0540-1.0600 and 1.0660-1.0700-1.0790.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday intra‐day low of US$1.2504/GBP, a high of US$1.2568/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.298% to close at US$1.2509/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2510-1.2380 with a target of 1.2590-1.2650-1.2750 and 1.2800.1.2890-1.2930-1.2990 with a stop loss closing below 1.2380. Sell in between 1.2590-1.2960 with targets at 1.2520 and 1.2450-1.2380-1.2290 with a stop loss of 1.3200.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY153.25/USD an intraday high of 157.54/USD, and settled the day down by 0.595% at JPY157.28/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 157.90-159.50 with risk above 159.00 targeting 156.00-155.25-154.30 and 153.80-153.00-152.10. Long positions above 157.00-149.00 with targets of 157.00-157.90 and 158.50-159.20-160.00 with stops below 147.00.