Daily Markets

• The dollar rose to a 13-month high in choppy trading on Thursday as investors assessed the latest labor market data and comments from Federal Reserve officials for the path of interest rates, while bitcoin continued its march toward the $100,000 level Weekly initial jobless claims dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 213,000, a seven-month low, and below the 220,000 estimate of economists polled by Reuters, indicating job growth rebounded after being disrupted by hurricanes and labor strikes last month. However, the report also indicated labor market slack as it is taking longer for the unemployed to find new jobs, as unemployment rolls grew to their highest levels in three years, giving the Fed cushion to cut rates again in December. Bitcoin continued its recent rally that has seen the cryptocurrency surge more than 40% since the U.S. election on expectations President-elect Donald Trump will loosen the regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin gained 4.23% to $98,458 after reaching a record high of $99,057. The Securities and Exchange Commission said Chair Gary Gensler, who challenged the crypto industry, will step down on Jan. 20. Recent comments from Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have indicated the central bank may take a slower course in its rate cut path, while concerns that Trump's policies could reignite inflation have helped push the dollar to a high of 107.15, its highest level since Oct. 4, 2023. European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane said global economic output would suffer a "sizeable" loss if trade became more fragmented and an immediate boost to inflation would only fade over a few years. Expectations for the path of rate cuts have been scaled back recently. Markets are pricing in a 55.9% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed's December meeting, down from 72.2% a week ago, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams told Barron's in an interview published on Thursday he sees inflation cooling and interest rates falling further while Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin said in an interview with the Financial Times the U.S. is more vulnerable to inflationary shocks than in the past. In addition, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee reiterated his support for further interest rate cuts and receptiveness to doing them more slowly. Safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc briefly strengthened on the latest potential signs of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia escalating before reversing course Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday the central bank would "seriously" take into account foreign exchange rate moves in compiling its economic and price forecasts.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$2673.3/oz and low of $2648.82/oz. Gold is up by % at US$2669.26/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2690-2700 keeping stop loss closing above 2700, targeting 2579-2560-2540-2519 and 2510-2500-2484. Buy in between 2650-2489 with risk below 2480 targeting 2624-2639-2650 and 2662-2670.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$31.29/oz and low of US$30.62/oz settle down by 0.155% at US$30.77/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 30.70-27.50, targeting 31.30-32.10-32.60 and 33.10-33.80-34.20 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 31.30-34.30 with a stop loss above 35.00 targeting 30.70-30.25-29.70 and 29.10-28.65-28.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$70.29/bbl, an intraday low of US$68.79/bbl, and settled up by 1.532% to close at US$68.79/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 70.40-76.85 with stop loss at 77.00; targeting 69.20-68.50-67.50 and 66.90-66.10-65.05. Buy above 69.50-64.05 with risk daily closing below 64.00, targeting 70.10-70.90 and 71.65-73.00-73.90.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD of Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0461/EUR, a high of US$1.0554/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.656% to close at US$1.0473/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0490-1.0840, targeting 1.0450-1.0400-1.0340 and 1.0290-1.0210 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400. Buy above 1.0540-1.0210 with risk below 1.0210 targeting 1.0490-1.0540-1.0600 and 1.0660-1.0700-1.0790.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2575/GBP, a high of US$1.2659/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.500% to close at US$1.2587/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2560-1.2380 with a target of 1.2600-1.2670-1.2750 and 1.2800.1.2890-1.2990 with a stop loss closing below 1.2380. Sell in between 1.2590-1.3260 with targets at 1.2520-1.2450-1.2380 and 1.2340-1.2290 with a stop loss of 1.3200.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY153.90/USD an intraday high of 155.39/USD, and settled the day down by 0.558% at JPY154.52/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 155.00-159.50 with risk above 159.00 targeting 154.60 and 153.70-153.00-152.10. Long positions above 154.00-150.00 with targets of 156.00-157.00-157.80 and 158.40-159.00 with stops below 150.00.