Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies firmed on Monday as the dollar fell sharply from recent highs after soft labor data, with focus turning squarely to the upcoming presidential election and a Federal Reserve meeting. Focus this week is also on a Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, and a meeting of China’s National People’s Congress, with the latter set to provide more cues on fiscal stimulus. Regional currencies benefited from weakness in the dollar, with the dollar index and dollar index futures both falling about 0.6% each in Asian trade. The greenback was dented by softer-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data on Friday, which showed the U.S. labor market was steadily cooling. Uncertainty before the U.S. election also weighed on the dollar, as polls showed a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with voting set for Tuesday. Additionally, markets were also positioning for a 25 basis point cut by the Fed later this week. The Japanese yen’s USDJPY pair fell 0.9%, retreating from recent three-month highs. The yen also benefited from a somewhat hawkish message from the Bank of Japan last week. he Chinese yuan’s USDCNY pair fell 0.4% from near two-month highs, with focus turning squarely to a meeting of the Standing Committee of the NPC that begins from Monday. The NPC is widely expected to outline plans for more fiscal spending, with recent reports suggesting the body could approve $1.4 trillion in additional debt over the coming years. More cues on fiscal spending will be closely in focus, as Beijing struggles to shore up slowing economic growth. While the government had outlined a slew of stimulus measures in the past month, they failed to inspire much confidence among traders. Purchasing managers index data for October, released last week, also showed little improvement in Chinese business activity.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$2748.04/oz and low of $2730.11/oz. Gold is up by 0.0160% at S$2736.29/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2744-2820 keeping stop loss closing above 2820, targeting 2734 and 2720-2700-2692. Buy in between 2734-2690 with risk below 2690 targeting 2,780-2,798-2800 and 2810-2834-2,850.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$32.85/oz and low of US$32.26/oz settle up by 0.148% at US$32.43/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 32.50-31.70, targeting 34.20-34.90-35.50 and 36.00-36.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 26.00. Sell in between 33.30-36.70 with a stop loss above 37.00 targeting 33.80-33.10-32.50 and 32.10-31.70-31.10.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$71.52/bbl, an intraday low of US$69.99/bbl, and settled up by 1.372% to close at US$71.43/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 70.50-76.85 with stop loss at 77.00; targeting 69.90-69.00-67.90 and 67.00-66.10-65.05 Buy above 69.00-64.05 with risk daily closing below 64.00, targeting 70.90-71.65-73.00 and 73.90-75.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD of Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0869/EUR, a high of US$1.0914/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.0340% to close at US$1.0872/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0890-1.1400, targeting 1.0960 and 1.0850- 1.0785 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400. Buy above 1.0800-1.0685 with risk below 1.0600 targeting 1.0870-1.0910-1.0960 and 1.1020-1.1120-1.1190.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2933/GBP, a high of US$1.2997/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.193% to close at US$1.2956/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2940-1.2690 with a target of 1.3120-1.3210-1.3300 and 1.3390-1.3450-1.3500 with a stop loss closing below 1.3010. Sell in between 1.2990-1.3660 with targets at 1.3040 -1.2940-1.2890 and 1.2800-1.2740-1.2690 with a stop loss of 1.3560.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY151.52/USD an intraday high of 152.56/USD, and settled the day up by 0.618% at JPY152.11/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 15300-156.50 with risk above 157.00 targeting 153.00-152.10-151.50 and 150.80-150.00-147.80. Long positions above 152.00-150.00 with targets of 153.70-154.00-154.49 and 154.90-155.30-156.00 with stops below 140.00.