Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies weakened slightly on Friday as the dollar retained a bulk of its weekly gains on expectations of a slower pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The Japanese yen steadied near its weakest level in three months as Japan geared up for a tightly contested general election over the weekend, while verbal warnings on potential currency market intervention also kept traders skittish towards the currency. Most Asian currencies were nursing losses this week as a mix of factors dented risk aversion, although the yen- traditionally a safe haven- was the worst performer this week. Sentiment towards Japanese markets was largely on edge before a general election on Sunday, where local polls showed an alliance led by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party could struggle to reach a majority. This could lead to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba facing an uphill battle to enact more economic reforms, while increased political uncertainty is also expected to undermine expectations for more interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. Consumer inflation data from Tokyo showed inflation eased slightly less than expected in October, but fell below the BOJ’s 2% annual target. The data usually heralds a similar reading from nationwide inflation data. The yen saw some strength after government officials kept up their warnings of potential intervention in the currency market, given recent weakness in the yen. The dollar index and dollar index futures steadied in Asian trade, and were headed for a fourth straight week of gains. The greenback was trading up about 0.6% this week. In addition to bets on smaller rate cuts, the dollar was also buoyed by increasing bets that Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential elections. Recent polls and online prediction markets put Trump ahead of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. Trump’s policies are expected to be inflationary, presenting a higher outlook for U.S. rates in the long term. Concerns over stickier U.S. interest rates sparked weakness in Asian markets, with most regional currencies headed for weekly declines. The Chinese yuan’s USDCNY pair rose 0.1% on Friday and was set to rise 0.3%. A meeting of China’s National People’s Congress, initially slated to take place in late-October, now appeared to be delayed to November.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$2743.13/oz and low of $2715.08/oz. Gold is down by 0.751% at S$2735.58/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2734-2770 keeping stop loss closing above 2770, targeting 2720-2700-2692 and 2680-2670-2650. Buy in between 2700-2640 with risk below 2640 targeting 2732-2,740 and 2750-2762-2,770.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$34.27/oz and low of US$33.22/oz settle down by 0.0653% at US$33.64/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 33.20-31.70, targeting 34.20-34.90-35.50 and 36.00-36.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 26.00. Sell in between 33.90-36.70 with a stop loss above 37.00 targeting 32.90-32.50-32.10 and 31.70-31.40-30.40.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$72.19/bbl, an intraday low of US$69.65/bbl, and settled down by 0.896% to close at US$70.22/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 70.90.00-76.85 with stop loss at 77.00; targeting 70.90-70.00-69.20-68.50 and 67.90-67.00. Buy above 69.50-65.05 with risk daily closing below 65.00, targeting 70.90-71.65-72.45 and 73.00-74.10-75.76-76.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD of Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0960/EUR, a high of US$1.0996/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.427% to close at US$1.0970/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0840-1.1400, targeting 1.0960 and 1.0850- 1.0785 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0800-1.0685 with risk below 1.0600 targeting 1..0870-1.0910-1.0960 and 1.1020-1.1120-1.1190.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2907/GBP, a high of US$1.2987/GBP, and settled the day up by % to close at US$1.2974/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2920-1.2690 with a target of 1.3120-1.3210-1.3300 and 1.3390-1.3450-1.3500 with a stop loss closing below 1.3010. Sell in between 1.3050-1.3660 with targets at 1.3040 -1.2940-1.2890 and 1.2800-1.2740-1.2690 with a stop loss of 1.3560.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY151.48/USD an intraday high of 152.81/USD, and settled the day down by 0.578% at JPY151.80/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 151.90-155.50 with risk above 155.00 targeting 147.80-147.00-146.00 and 145.10-143.90-143.00-142.20. Long positions above 150.20-140.00 with targets of 148.50-149.20-150.00 and 151.10-151.50 with stops below 140.00.