Daily Markets

• The dollar reached its highest since early November against a basket of currencies on Monday and sent the yen to its lowest level since 1990, after U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in March. Retail sales rose 0.7% last month and data for February was revised higher to show sales rebounding 0.9% instead 0.6% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, rising 0.3% in March. The greenback has gained as still sticky inflation and strong growth leads investors to push back expectations on when the Federal Reserve is likely to begin cutting rates. The U.S. central bank also now expected to make fewer cuts than previously. Traders are now pricing in fewer than two 25 basis points cuts by year-end, after previously expecting three. New York Fed President John Williams said on Monday that Fed policy was in a good place and remained restrictive, adding that his own view was that interest rate cuts would likely begin this year. The Japanese yen in particular has suffered from U.S. dollar strength and the large interest rate differential between the two countries. Japanese monetary officials have ramped up warnings that they may intervene to shore up the currency. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Monday he was watching currency moves closely, repeating that Tokyo is "fully prepared" to act. Bechtel sees any potential intervention as more likely if the yen is underperforming, rather than during episodes of broad-based dollar strength Investors are also focused on escalating tensions in the middle east, which are seen as increasing demand for the safe haven U.S. dollar. Israel faced growing pressure from allies on Monday to show restraint and avoid an escalation of conflict in the Middle East as it considered how to respond to Iran's weekend missile and drone attack. The single currency recorded its biggest weekly percentage drop since late September 2022 last week as the European Central Bank left the door open to a rate cut in June.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$2431.40/oz and low of $2333.74/oz. Gold is down by 0.601% at US$2344.30/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2389-2430 keeping stop loss closing above 2430, targeting 2350 and 2325-2310-2280. Buy in between 2360-2300 with risk below 2300 targeting 2360 and 2369-2380-2400.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$28.87/oz and low of US$27.57/oz settle up by 2.49% at US$28.85/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 28.50-23.90, targeting 28.90-29.40-30.00 and 30.40-31.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 23.00. Sell in between 28.90-30.50 with a stop loss above 30.50 targeting 27.00-26.40-25.90 and 25.45-24.90 and 24.60-23.90-23.20.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$85.29/bbl, an intraday low of US$83.52/bbl, and settled down by 0.105% to close at US85.15/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 86.00-89.65 with stop loss at 90.00; targeting 86.00-85.20-84.00 and 83.35-81.10-79.90. Buy above 84.00-75.00 with risk daily closing below 75.00, targeting 86.70-87.50-88.40 and 89.00-89.65.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0619/EUR, a high of US$1.0728/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.779% to close at US$1.0623/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0650-1.1100, targeting 1.0775 and 1.0770-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0590-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0845-1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2429/GBP, a high of US$1.2498/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.0933% to close at US$1.2444/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2410-1.2050 with a target of 1.2540-1.2600-1.2690 and 1.2730-1.2790-1.2850 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2510-1.3120 with targets at 1.2400-1.2360-1.2300 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY152.96/USD an intraday high of 154.44/USD, and settled the day up by 0.815% at JPY154.325/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 154.90-156.00 with risk above 156.00 targeting 153.10-152.60-151.00 and 150.60-149.90-149.30. Long positions above 153.00-149.90 with targets of 154.00-154.90 and 155.59-156.10 with stops below 149.90.