Daily Markets

• The dollar rose moderately on Thursday in choppy trading, as weaker-than-expected March U.S. producer prices did not relieve concerns about persistent inflation which has reinforced the belief that the Federal Reserve will delay cutting interest rates this year. Fed officials who spoke on Thursday also repeated the need for a patient approach in easing monetary policy, boosting the dollar. Thursday's data showed the producer price index (PPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month in March, compared with an 0.3% increase expected by economists polled by Reuters. On a year-on-year basis, it rose 2.1%, versus an estimated 2.2% gain. The U.S. currency fell after the PPI news but has rebounded. A separate report showed 211,000 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended April 6, compared with a forecast for 215,000, reflecting persistent labor market tightness. The dollar barely responded as investors focused on inflation The PPI report followed a stronger-than-expected consumer prices index (CPI) released on Wednesday. The U.S. CPI rose 0.4% on a monthly basis in March, compared with expectations for a 0.3% increase. In afternoon trading, the greenback was flat against the yen at 153.23 yen, after sliding below 153 yen after the PPI data. Earlier in the session, the dollar hit a fresh 34-year high of 153.32 yen. The yen's slide against the dollar has reignited intervention fears, as Japanese officials reiterated they would not rule out any steps to deal with excessive swings. Japan intervened in the currency market three times in 2022 as the yen slid toward a 32-year low of 152 to the dollar. Following the PPI data, the U.S. rate futures market has priced in a roughly 69% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, the CME's FedWatch tool showed. This timeline emerged after Wednesday's hotter-than-expected consumer price index last month. For weeks, rate futures had factored in a June rate cut. Fed fund futures have also pared back the number of rate cuts of 25 basis points (bps) this year to fewer than two, or roughly 42 bps, from about three or four a few weeks ago. In other currencies, the euro was last down 0.1% at $1.07026 . Earlier, it fell to a two-month low of $1.0699 after the European Central Bank held interest rates at a record high of 4% as expected, but sent a signal it was preparing for a cut. In the United States, the Fed signaled on Thursday a rate cut is not imminent. New York Fed President John Williams said while the U.S. central bank has made considerable progress in lowering inflation, it does not yet need to move to an easier monetary policy setting given volatile movements in inflation. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voter this year on the Fed's policy-setting committee, echoed the same sentiment. He said the latest numbers did not increase his confidence that price pressures were easing on a broader basis throughout the economy.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$2431.40/oz and low of $2333.74/oz. Gold is down by 0.601% at US$2344.30/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2369-2430 keeping stop loss closing above 2430, targeting 2350 and 2325-2310-2280. Buy in between 2351-2300 with risk below 2300 targeting 2360 and 2369-2380-2400.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$29.77/oz and low of US$27.83/oz settle down by 1.879% at US$27.88/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 28.50-23.90, targeting 28.90-29.40-30.00 and 30.40-31.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 23.00. Sell in between 28.90-30.50 with a stop loss above 30.50 targeting 27.00-26.40-25.90 and 25.45-24.90 and 24.60-23.90-23.20.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$87.01/bbl, an intraday low of US$84.78/bbl, and settled down by 0.118% to close at US85.95/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 85.40-89.65 with stop loss at 90.00; targeting 86.00-85.20-84.00 and 83.35-81.10-79.90. Buy above 84.70-75.00 with risk daily closing below 75.00, targeting 86.70-87.50-88.40 and 89.00-89.65.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0621/EUR, a high of US$1.0728/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.779% to close at US$1.0641/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0690-1.1100, targeting 1.0775 and 1.0770-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0650-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0845-1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2426/GBP, a high of US$1.2557/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.815% to close at US$1.2449/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2410-1.2050 with a target of 1.2540-1.2600-1.2690 and 1.2730-1.2790-1.2850 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2510-1.3120 with targets at 1.2400-1.2360-1.2300 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY152.58/USD an intraday high of 153.37/USD, and settled the day up by 0.0464% at JPY153.30/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 153.90-156.00 with risk above 156.00 targeting 153.10-152.60-151.00 and 150.60-149.90-149.30. Long positions above 153.00-149.90 with targets of 154.00-154.90 and 155.59-156.10 with stops below 149.90.