Daily Markets

• The dollar hit a two-week low on Thursday as economic data supported expectations for quick interest rate cuts in the U.S., and fell against the battered yen. An unexpected slowdown in U.S. services growth, supporting the idea of bringing interest rates down, had pushed the dollar lower on Wednesday. Still, the U.S. currency was able to pare some earlier losses after Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said rate cuts might not be required this year if inflation continues to stall. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Thursday that inflation data at the start of this year "has been a little less encouraging," and raises the question of "whether we are seeing a real shift in the economic outlook, or merely a bump along the way." The major focus for the rest of the week will be on the release of the monthly U.S. employment report on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters are forecasting 200,000 jobs were added in March. The yen was close to its 34-year low versus the greenback as the Bank of Japan's historic policy shift to end eight years of negative interest rates has failed so far to bolster the currency. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank could "respond with monetary policy" if exchange-rate moves affect the country's inflation and wages in ways that are hard to ignore, the Asahi newspaper reported late Thursday. The rates picture, with U.S. 10-year yields at more than 4% and Japan's still close to zero, is keeping big Japanese investors' cash abroad, where it can earn better returns, depriving the yen of support from repatriation flows. Japanese authorities will likely intervene in the currency market if the yen breaks out of a range it has been in for years and weakens well beyond 152 per dollar, former top Japanese currency official Tatsuo Yamazaki said on Thursday. Analysts said the further drop in Swiss inflation in March reinforced the view that the Swiss National Bank would cut rates by an additional 50 basis points this year. European inflation came in softer than expected on Wednesday, reinforcing expectations for a European rate cut in June. Chinese markets were closed for a holiday.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$2305.49/oz and low of $2279.85/oz. Gold is down by 0.089% at US$2290.77/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell in between 2284-2350 keeping stop loss closing above 2350, targeting 2280-2270-2261 and 2250-2239-2220-2200. Buy in between 2261-2210 with risk below 2210 targeting 2,280-2294-2310 and 2325-2340-2,350.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$27.31/oz and low of US$26.65/oz settle up by 1.081% at US$26.88/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 26.00-23.90, targeting 27.50-28.00-28.40 and 28.90-29.40 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 23.00. Sell in between 26.80-29.50 with a stop loss above 29.50 targeting 26.40-25.90 and 25.45-24.90 and 24.60-23.90-23.20.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$86.72/bbl, an intraday low of US$84.21/bbl, and settled up by 1.40% to close at US86.32/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 86.40-89.65 with stop loss at 90.00; targeting 86.00-85.20-84.00 and 83.35-81.10-79.90. Buy above 86.00-75.00 with risk daily closing below 75.00, targeting 86.70-87.50-88.40 and 89.00-89.65.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0831/EUR, a high of US$1.0876/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.617% to close at US$1.0836/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0845-1.1100, targeting 1.0775 and 1.0770-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0805-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0845-1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2634/GBP, a high of US$1.2682/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.0806% to close at US$1.2640/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2610-1.2050 with a target of 1.2600-1.2690-1.2730 and 1.2790-1.2850-1.2890 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2670-1.3120 with targets at 1.2540-1.2490-1.2400 and 1.2360-1.2300 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY151.11/USD an intraday high of 151.76/USD, and settled the day down by 0.237% at JPY151.32/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 151.90-154.00 with risk above 154.00 targeting 151.00-150.60-149.90-149.30 and 148.10-147.40-146.95. Long positions above 151.00-141.90 with targets of 151.30-51.90 and 152.50-153.10-154.00 with stops below 141.90.