Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies moved little on Thursday, seeing little support even as the dollar fell sharply from near five-month highs as uncertainty over the path of U.S. interest rates remained in play. Regional trading volumes were also muted with market holidays in China and Hong Kong. The dollar index and dollar index futures fell slightly in Asian trade, extending steep overnight losses after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell offered up mixed signals on U.S. interest rate cuts. While Powell said the Fed will eventually cut interest rates later this year, he offered scant cues on the timing and scale of the potential cuts. Powell also said the central bank will need more confidence that inflation was moving towards its 2% annual target. Powell’s comments came just ahead of key nonfarm payrolls data for March, which is due on Friday. Sticky inflation and strength in the labor market are the Fed’s two biggest considerations for potentially cutting interest rates. Before the labor data, focus is also on addresses by other members of the Fed’s rate-setting committee. FOMC members Michelle Bowman and Thomas Barkin are set to speak at separate events later on Thursday. This proximity to 34-year highs, which were above the 152 level for USDJPY, kept markets on edge over any potential government intervention in currency markets. A slew of top Japanese officials had warned markets over speculating against the yen, and that they would not rule out any measures to bring down the USDJPY pair. Broader Asian currencies drifted in a flat-to-high range, amid Chinese market holidays and anticipation of more cues on U.S. interest rates. Focus was also on a Reserve Bank of India meeting on Friday, where the bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. But any comments on inflation and economic growth will be closely watched, especially ahead of the 2024 Indian general election.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$2300.94/oz and low of $2265.38/oz. Gold is up by 0.855% at US$2299.51oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell in between 2300-2350 keeping stop loss closing above 2350, targeting 2280-2270-2261 and 2250-2239-2220-2200. Buy in between 2284-2210 with risk below 2210 targeting 2294-2310 and 2325-2340.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$27.16/oz and low of US$26.09/oz settle up by 3.89% at US$27.16/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 26.80-23.90, targeting 27.50-28.00-28.40 and 28.90-29.40 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 23.00. Sell in between 27.50-29.50 with a stop loss above 29.50 targeting 26.80-26.40-25.90 and 25.45-24.90 and 24.60-23.90-23.20.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$85.00/bbl, an intraday low of US$83.29/bbl, and settled up by 1.710% to close at US84.96/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 85.40-88.30 with stop loss at 88.30; targeting 84.00-83.35-81.10 and 79.90-79.00-78.00. Buy above 85.00-75.00 with risk daily closing below 75.00, targeting 82.90-83.35-84.00 and 84.80-86.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0764/EUR, a high of US$1.08363/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.617% to close at US$1.0835/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0845-1.1100, targeting 1.0775 and 1.0770-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0805-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0845-1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2561/GBP, a high of US$1.2561/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.593% to close at US$1.2605/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2610-1.2050 with a target of 1.2600-1.2690-1.2730 and 1.2790-1.2850-1.2890 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2670-1.3120 with targets at 1.2540-1.2490-1.2400 and 1.2360-1.2300 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY151.43/USD an intraday high of 151.94/USD, and settled the day down by 0.089% at JPY151.68/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 151.90-154.00 with risk above 154.00 targeting 151.00-150.60-149.90-149.30 and 148.10-147.40-146.95. Long positions above 151.00-141.90 with targets of 151.30-51.90 and 152.50-153.10-154.00 with stops below 141.90.