Daily Markets

• Oil prices rose on Friday and were on track for their second straight weekly gain, as resilient demand resulted in a larger-than-expected fall in U.S. oil stocks, offsetting fears of higher U.S. interest rates. U.S. crude stocks fell more than expected on strong refining demand, while gasoline inventories posted a large draw after an increase in driving last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday. That comes as top oil exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia announced a fresh round of output cuts for August. The total cuts now stand at more than five million barrels per day (bpd), equating to 5% of global oil output. However, oil price gains were capped by strengthening expectations that the U.S. central bank is likely to raise interest rates at its July 25-26 meeting after holding rates steady at 5%-5.25% in June. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased moderately last week, while private payrolls surged in June, data showed on Thursday, raising the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month. OPEC will likely maintain an upbeat view on oil demand growth for next year when it publishes its first outlook later this month, predicting a slowdown from this year but still an above-average increase, sources close to OPEC said Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand. Investors will look for cues on rate paths from U.S. and China inflation data next week.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1927.53/oz and low of $1902.56/oz. Gold is up by 0.230% at US$1910.64/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1894) and breakage below will call for 1871. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are also decreasing trend and which will bring more downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1930-1966 keeping stop loss closing above 1966, targeting 1900-1894-1885 and 1871-1858. Buy in between 1909-1,871 with risk below 1874 targeting 1909-1920-1934 and 1944-1954-1966.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$23.29/oz and low of US$22.84/oz settled up by 0.798% at US$23.11/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (22.91), breakage above will lead to 23.51. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.90-18.30, targeting 22.90-23.40-24.10 and 24.60-25.00-25.90-26.30 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 23.40-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50; targeting 22.05-21.60-21.00 and 20.80.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$72.33/bbl, an intraday low of US$70.25/bbl, and settled up by 0.101% to close at US71.86/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 68.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 72.55-75.20 with stop loss at 75.00; targeting 70.10-69.00-68.40 and 67.50-66.90-66.00. Buy above 71.60-66.50 with risk daily closing below 66.00; targeting 72.50-73.50-74.10 and 74.60-75.20.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0833/EUR, a high of US$1.0900/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.313% to close at US$1.0887/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0900-1.1390, targeting 1.0840-1.0790-1.0750 and 1.0660-1.0600-1.0550 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1390. Buy above 1.0840-1.0525 with risk below 1.0525 targeting 1.0900-1.0970-1.1020 and 1.1090-1.1150-1.1210.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2672/GBP, a high of US$1.2780/GBP, and settled the day up by % to close at US$1.2738/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2650-1.2400 with a target of 1.2690-1.2750-1.2855 and 1.2910-1.2970-1.3050 with a stop loss closing below 1.2400. Sell in between 1.2690-1.2950 with targets at 1.2650-1.2590 and 1.2520-1.2450 with a stop loss should be 1.2970.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY143.55/USD, an intraday high of JPY144.64/USD, and settled the day down by 0.407% at JPY144.04/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 144.00-148.00 with risk above 148.00 targeting 143.50 and 142.20-141.00-139.70. Long positions above 143.50-140.00 with targets of 144.00-145.40-146.00-146.90 and 147.50-148.00 with stops below 136.00