Daily Markets

• Oil prices rose on Monday after U.S. leaders reached a tentative debt ceiling deal, possibly averting a default in the world's largest economy and oil consumer, although concerns about further interest rate hikes capped gains. U.S. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on the weekend forged an agreement to suspend the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling and cap government spending for the next two years. Both leaders expressed confidence that members of the Democratic and Republican parties will vote to support the deal. Reaching the deal and coming closer to avoiding a default on U.S. debt renewed investor appetite for riskier assets such as commodities. Analysts said the provisional deal has taken pressure off the markets, offering a relief rally in risk assets, including crude oil. Prices gained as the U.S. debt ceiling talks showed progress and after Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman warned short-sellers betting that oil prices will fall to "watch out" for pain. Bin Salman's warning was seen as a signal that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, may further cut output when they meet on June 4. However, comments from Russian oil officials and sources, including Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, indicate the world's third-largest oil producer is leaning toward leaving output unchanged. Analysts see the boost in oil prices from the debt deal as short-lived. The rally's sustainability is questionable as there is a higher chance the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in June after their preferred inflation metric rose more than expected for April, IG's Sydney-based analyst Tony Sycamore said. Investors will be watching for manufacturing and services data in China, the world's biggest oil importer, this week as well as U.S. nonfarm payroll data on Friday for signals on economic growth and oil demand.Future oil output growth in the U.S., the world's biggest producer, also may slow as energy firms cut rigs for a fourth week. The number of oil rigs operating fell by five to 570 last week to their lowest since May 2022, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said in its weekly report on Friday.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made it’s intraday high of US$1957.16/oz and low of $1936.69/oz. Gold is up by 0.304% at US$1946.46/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1,961-2080 keeping stop loss closing above 2009, targeting 1950-1939-1926 and 1920-1910-1900. Buy in between 1,941-1,900 with risk below 1,950 targeting 1966-1974-1981 and 1990-2000-2009.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$23.32/oz and low of US$22.66/oz settled up by 2.65% at US$23.30/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.00-18.30, targeting 23.40-24.10-24.60 and 25.00-25.90-26.30 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 23.90-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50; targeting 25.00-24.60-23.60-23.00 and 22.05-21.60-21.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$74.33/bbl, an intraday low of US$70.98/bbl, and settled down by 3.24% to close at US$71.75/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 68.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 73.50-79.75 with stop loss at 80.00; targeting 72.40-71.50 and 70.10-69.00-68.40. Buy above 73.10-68.40 with risk daily closing below 68.40; targeting 73.50-74.10-75.00 and 76.30-77.00-78.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0701/EUR, a high of US$1.0758/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.0130% to close at US$1.0725/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0790-1.1390, targeting 1.0700-1.0650-1.0600 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1032. Buy above 1.0710-1.0525 with risk below 1.0525 targeting 1.0810-1.1090-1.1150 and 1.1200-1.1250.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2310/GBP, a high of US$1.2394/GBP, and settled the day up 0.232% to close at US$1.2348/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2320-1.2200 with a target of 1.2410-1.2500-1.2590 and 1.2640-1.2700-1.2745 with a stop loss closing below 1.2200. Sell in between 1.2410-1.2954 with targets at 1.2320-1.2290-1.2250 and 1.2205-1.2175 with stop loss should be 1.2954.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY139.48/USD, an intraday high of JPY139.45/USD, and settled the day up by 0.413% at JPY139.43/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (134.05), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 139.70-142.00 with risk above 142.00 targeting 138.90-138.50-137.90 and 137.00-136.20-134.90. Long positions above 138.90-133.00 with targets of 139.70 and 140.50-141.00 with stops below 133.00.