Daily Markets

• Oil prices fell slightly on Friday as traders weighed the prospect of more economic headwinds from rising interest rates, although renewed optimism over a rebound in Chinese demand put prices on course for strong weekly gains. Crude markets logged wild swings in recent sessions amid a series of mixed cues. While better-than-expected Chinese business activity data offered upward momentum, this was offset by hawkish signals from major central banks and signs of stubborn inflation across the globe. Optimism over China was the biggest boost to prices this week, as the country’s composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) grew at its fastest pace in over a decade in February after Beijing relaxed most anti-COVID measures earlier this year. The results of a private survey reiterated this notion of a recovery on Friday, with the Caixin services PMI rising more than expected in February. The readings reinforced bets that an economic recovery in China will drive crude demand to record highs in 2023. But it also helped oil prices advance past several potential headwinds to the market. Data this week showed U.S. manufacturing activity declined for a fourth consecutive month in February, while manufacturing prices unexpectedly rose, feeding into fears of high inflation. Weaker-than-expected weekly jobless claims also pointed to resilience in the labor market, which the Fed is looking to stem. Overnight comments from Federal Reserve officials offered some clarity over the path of interest rates. But they reiterated that the Fed’s stance will be largely determined by economic data, which has so far shown that inflation remained sticky in January. Other data also showed that U.S. markets remained flush with supply, as the country’s crude inventories grew for a tenth consecutive week. European consumer inflation read higher than expected for February, inviting a hawkish rhetoric from the European Central Bank as it moves against rising prices Oil prices are still trading about 2% lower for the year, with pressure coming chiefly from a stronger dollar and concerns that rising interest rates will dent economic growth this year, in turn hurting crude demand.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made it’s intraday high of US$1838.90/oz and low of $1829.89/oz. Gold is down by 0.057% at US$1835.50/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1840-1874 keeping stop loss closing above 1874, targeting 1830-1823-1802 and 1790-1774-1761. Buy in between 1830-1761 with risk below 1761, targeting 1844 and 1853-1874-1887.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$21.00/oz and low of US20.66/oz settled down by 0.476% at US$20.88/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 20.60-18.30, targeting 22.10-23.00 and 24.40-25.00-25.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 21.10-26.20 with stop loss above 26.20; targeting 20.70-19.90 and 19.50-19.01.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$78.75/bbl, an intraday low of US$77.27/bbl, and settled up by 0.240% to close at US$77.94/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 78.90-80.40 with stop loss at 80.40; targeting 75.10-74.00-73.10 and 72.40-71.90-71.00. Buy above 77.10-71.20 with risk daily closing below 71.20; targeting 77.00-78.10 and 78.95-79.65-80.30.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0575/EUR, a high of US$1.0672/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.841% to close at US$1.0596/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0650-1.0810, targeting 1.0520-1.0480 and 1.0450-1.0400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0810. Buy above 1.0590-1.0450 with risk below 1.0450 targeting 1.0550-1.0590-1.0650 and 1.0690-1.0750-1.0810.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1924/GBP, a high of US$1.2035/GBP, and settled the day down 0.715% to close at US$1.1942/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.21) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2010-1.1650 with a target of 1.2090-1.2120 and 1.2170-1.2290- 1.2390 with a stop loss closing below 1.1650. Sell in between 1.2060-1.2650 with targets at 1.2010-1.1900-1.1820 and 1.1750- 1.1650-1.1600 with stop loss should be 1.2445.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY135.25/USD and made an intraday high of JPY137.09/USD and settled the day up by 0.447% at JPY136.75/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 136.50-140.60 with risk above 140.60 targeting 135.50-134.90-133.90 and 132.90-132.00-131.60. Long positions above 135.50-131.20 with targets of 136.50-138.10-139.00 and 140.10-140.60 with stops below 130.00.